Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China National Building Material (CNBM) with a target price of HKD 4.53, based on a 2025 P/E ratio of 8x [7]. Core Views - CNBM is a leading state-owned enterprise in the building materials sector, with significant confidence in its development demonstrated through a large-scale share buyback [1][2]. - The company has faced performance pressures since 2022, but forecasts suggest a potential recovery in profits from 2024 onwards, driven by reduced capital expenditures and financial costs [1][40]. - The report highlights the company's strong market position, with seven business segments ranking first globally, including cement and new materials [1][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - CNBM is directly managed by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, with a diversified portfolio across basic building materials, new materials, and engineering services [1][14]. - The company has undergone significant mergers and acquisitions, enhancing its scale and market reach [1][19]. 2. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at CNY 199.3 billion, CNY 216.2 billion, and CNY 229 billion, with corresponding net profits of CNY 1.2 billion, CNY 4.4 billion, and CNY 5.6 billion [11]. - The company has experienced a decline in revenue and profits since 2022, with a notable drop in the basic building materials segment [19][44]. 3. Business Segments Basic Building Materials - The basic building materials segment, primarily cement, has seen a decline in profitability, with a revenue drop of 30.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 [3][44]. - The segment's gross margin has decreased significantly, from 27% in 2020 to 8.8% in the first half of 2024 [44]. New Materials - The new materials segment has shown revenue growth, but profits have slightly declined, with a revenue increase of 0.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 [4]. - The segment's gross margin was reported at 24% in the first half of 2024 [4]. Engineering Services - The engineering services segment has maintained stable revenue and profit growth, with a revenue increase of 2% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 [5]. - The segment's gross margin has shown a steady increase, reaching 19% [5]. 4. Share Buyback and Valuation - The company announced a share buyback plan to repurchase up to 841,749,304 H shares at a price of HKD 4.03 per share, representing approximately 9.98% of the issued shares [2][26]. - The buyback is expected to enhance shareholder value and improve the company's stock price, which has been trading below its net asset value [2][35].
中国建材：航母级建材央企龙头，大手笔回购彰显发展信心-20250215