MGM CHINA(02282) 东吴证券国际·2025-02-14 16:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for MGM China [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2024 exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching HKD 8.71 billion, a 10% increase quarter-on-quarter, and recovering to 128.3% of the same period in 2019 [6] - The company achieved a significant increase in market share, with VIP and mass market gaming revenue growing by 29.9% and 8.0% respectively, leading to an overall market share increase to approximately 15.6% [6] - The report forecasts continued growth in revenue and adjusted property EBITDA for 2024-2026, with target prices set at HKD 16.6 [6] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from HKD 24,684.2 million in 2023 to HKD 31,381.9 million in 2024, representing a 369% year-on-year increase [1] - Adjusted property EBITDA is expected to rise from HKD 7,235.3 million in 2023 to HKD 9,244.1 million in 2024, reflecting a 28% increase [1] - The diluted earnings per share are forecasted to increase from HKD 0.69 in 2023 to HKD 1.34 in 2024 [1] Market Performance - The stock closed at HKD 9.71, with a market capitalization of HKD 36,899 million [4] - The stock has a historical price range of HKD 9.00 to HKD 14.92 over the past year [4] Balance Sheet Highlights - The total assets are projected to be HKD 29,181 million in 2023, with a significant portion in non-current assets [7] - The company has a debt ratio of 100.2%, indicating a high level of leverage [5]