Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [6] Core Views - Yu Yuan Group announced a profit forecast for 2024, expecting a year-on-year increase of 55%-60% in net profit attributable to shareholders, estimating net profit to be between $430 million and $440 million, which is below market expectations due to rising costs and exchange rate impacts [2][17] - The company anticipates a revenue of $8.18 billion for 2024, representing a 3% year-on-year growth [2][17] - In Q4 2024, the net profit is expected to be between $94 million and $108 million, a year-on-year decline of 21.5%-31.5% [2][17] - The revenue for Q4 2024 is projected to be $2.11 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.7% [2][17] Industry Data Tracking Raw Material Data - As of February 14, 2025, the China Cotton 3128B Index is at 14,894 RMB/ton, with a year-to-date increase of 1.25% [11][37] - The medium import cotton price index (1% tariff) is at 13,356 RMB/ton, with a year-to-date decrease of 1.51% [11][37] - The USDA forecasts a 6.21% year-on-year increase in global cotton production for the 2024/2025 season, with total production expected to reach 26.228 million tons [50] Export Data - In December 2024, textile and apparel exports reached $28.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.4% [55] - For the entire year of 2024, textile and apparel exports totaled $301.1 billion, growing by 2.8% [55] Consumer Data - In January 2025, the sales growth for sports categories on Douyin was 160.8%, with men's clothing showing better growth than women's [66] - The sales growth for women's clothing on Taobao and Tmall turned positive in January 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 13.93% [10][66]
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HUAXI Securities·2025-02-15 07:00