食饮行业周报（2025年2月第2期）：位置大于择时，重视政策催化

Investment Rating - The industry rating for the food and beverage sector is "Positive" [3] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the position in the market is more important than timing, suggesting active allocation in the current market context. It highlights the potential for a structural bull market in the liquor sector driven by policy catalysts, particularly with the upcoming National People's Congress meeting [1][11] - For the liquor sector, the report notes that the performance during the Spring Festival met expectations, with regional leaders like Su and Hui wines performing well. It recommends focusing on brands with strong brand momentum and reasonable growth targets [1][11] - The report identifies two main investment themes for the liquor sector: "momentum continuation" and "low base recovery," recommending specific brands for each category [1][11] Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is expected to benefit from policy catalysts, with a structural bull market anticipated. The report recommends brands such as Wuliangye and Kweichow Moutai for high-end liquor, and Gujing Gongjiu and Shanxi Fenjiu for regional brands [1][11] - The report notes that from February 7 to February 14, the liquor sector saw a 3.09% increase, with Shanxi Fenjiu leading at +9.27% [3][19] Consumer Goods Sector - The report outlines two main investment lines for the consumer goods sector: the "prosperity line" and the "recovery line." It emphasizes the importance of new channel developments and the recovery of the restaurant supply chain as key investment opportunities [2][15] - Specific recommendations include brands like Three Squirrels, Qingdao Beer, and Yili Group, focusing on high-prosperity segments first [2][15] Market Performance - The report indicates that from February 7 to February 14, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 1.19%, with frozen food (+3.65%) and liquor (+3.09%) leading the gains [19] - The report also highlights that the current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for the liquor sector is at 19.20x, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [6][25]