特朗普新政系列研究十：美国对等关税影响几何

Group 1: Tariff Policy Overview - The "reciprocal tariffs" policy is set to be implemented as early as April 1, 2025, following a trade memorandum signed by Trump on February 14, 2025[2] - The new tariffs target three main areas of "non-reciprocal" behavior, including unequal bilateral tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and currency manipulation[3] - Major trade partners like India, Japan, and the EU have higher tariff levels than the US, with India at 6.5%, Japan at 1.8%, and the EU at 1.7%[3] Group 2: Impact on China and Other Countries - China may receive a negative outcome from the tariff investigation due to issues like non-tariff barriers and currency manipulation, with current US tariffs already exceeding China's by 7.1 percentage points[2] - The average tariff level for the US against China has risen to 22.2% after a 10% additional tariff was imposed on February 4, 2025[8] - The investigation's timeline suggests a low probability of drastic tariff escalations in Q1 2025, with key assessments expected in March[2] Group 3: Non-Tariff Barriers and Currency Manipulation - Non-tariff barriers affecting China include excessive quarantine on food and agricultural products, and unfair competition due to non-market policies[5] - The US identifies several countries, including China and Japan, as "monitoring countries" for currency manipulation, which could influence tariff decisions[6] - The criteria for being labeled a currency manipulator include a trade surplus with the US of at least $15 billion and an intervention in the foreign exchange market that exceeds 2% of GDP[6]