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变化
国投证券·2025-02-16 14:08

Group 1: Market Trends - The main theme in A-shares this week is DS, with AI-driven gains lifting blue-chip stocks, indicating a potential shift away from pricing based on economic fundamentals and fiscal expectations since September 2022[1] - If stocks continue to become desensitized to economic fundamentals and fiscal policies, it will represent a significant macroeconomic change[1] Group 2: AI+ Implications - AI+ may serve not only as a thematic investment but also as a hedge against domestic overcapacity cycles and could influence the rhythm of China-US relations[1] - The transition from current enterprise consumption DS to future edge-side capital expenditures aligns with macroeconomic logic[1] Group 3: Asset Pricing Dynamics - In terms of asset performance, A-shares experienced a "break flag" during the Lantern Festival, while Hong Kong stocks confirmed a "finger pointing to the road" on Valentine's Day[1] - The black commodity market is characterized by weak demand and low inventory, creating an intertwined dynamic[1] - Bond markets are facing high funding costs and weak economic expectations, leading to a split between short-term and long-term yields[1] - The pricing logic of major asset classes appears to be diverging this week, but it is expected to eventually converge unless new significant variables or market signals emerge[1]