山西证券：研究早观点-20250217

Market Overview - The domestic market indices showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,346.72, up by 0.43% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.16% to 10,749.46, while the ChiNext Index rose by 1.80% to 2,215.30 [2] Coal Industry Insights - The coal industry is currently facing a dual weakness in supply and demand, leading to a continued decline in coal prices. As of February 14, the spot price for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim was 750 RMB/ton, down 1.45% week-on-week [6] - Metallurgical coal prices have stabilized due to macroeconomic expectations, with the price of coking coal at Tangshan Port remaining steady at 1,460 RMB/ton [6] - The overall coal sector experienced a pullback, with the CITIC Coal Index closing at 3,360.11, down 1.36% [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong performance support and undervalued stocks, particularly those with a small proportion of non-coal business such as Xinjie Energy and Haohua Energy [8] - Companies with a larger share of non-coal business, like Shaanxi Energy and Electric Power Energy, are also highlighted as significantly undervalued [8] - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term funds to enter the market, especially as the annual report season approaches, enhancing the attractiveness of the coal sector [8] Price Trends and Inventory - As of February 14, the total inventory of metallurgical coal at independent coking plants was 7.38 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 8.88% week-on-week [6] - The average price of rebar steel in the national market was 3,440 RMB/ton, down 1.21% week-on-week, indicating a potential increase in demand for coking coal due to upcoming construction peaks [6][8] Transportation and Logistics - The coastal coal transportation index was reported at 472.59 points, down 0.53% week-on-week, reflecting a continued decline in transportation rates due to oversupply [7] - The average transportation price for long-distance coal transport in Ordos was 0.22 RMB/ton, down 2.22% week-on-week [7]