万联证券：万联晨会-20250217

Market Overview - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.43%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.8%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 17145.8 billion yuan [1][7] - In terms of industry performance, the computer, pharmaceutical, and media sectors led the gains, while real estate, building materials, and comprehensive sectors lagged behind. Concept sectors such as DRG/DIP, family doctors, and smart medical concepts saw significant increases, while military restructuring, characteristic towns, and cultivated diamond concepts experienced declines [1][7] Important News - As of the end of January 2025, M2 grew by 7% year-on-year, and M1 increased by 0.4%. In January, new RMB loans amounted to 5.13 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale increased by 7.06 trillion yuan, which is 583.3 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The total social financing scale reached 415.2 trillion yuan, marking an 8% year-on-year growth [2][8] - WeChat and Baidu have integrated DeepSeek into their platforms, indicating a significant collaboration with applications that have nearly 1.4 billion monthly active users. Baidu's app reported 704 million monthly active users as of the end of Q3 2024 [2][8] Industry Insights Electronics Industry - The SW electronics fund's heavy position and overweight ratio have reached a near ten-year high, with the fund's heavy position ratio at 16.94%, an increase of 2.95 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [10][12] - The top ten heavy stocks in the SW electronics sector for Q4 2024 include Cambricon, SMIC, and Huagong Technology, with seven of these stocks showing positive performance in Q4 [10][11] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Industry - As of early February 2025, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector has a pre-profit rate of 65%, with a decrease in the proportion of companies reporting first-time losses [14][15] - The breeding sector shows improvement, with a pre-profit rate of 83%, while the planting sector is experiencing a downward trend [15] Banking Industry - The banking sector's wealth management market is projected to reach a scale of 29.95 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, reflecting an 11.75% increase from the end of 2023 [17][19] - The downward adjustment of deposit rates and the rectification of high-interest deposits are expected to enhance the competitiveness of wealth management products [18][19] Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a slowdown, with a pre-profit rate of 69%. The proportion of companies reporting first-time losses has decreased from 19% in 2023 to 9% in 2024 [20][21] - The white liquor sector is under pressure due to inventory reduction, but demand recovery is expected to alleviate this pressure [23]