美国1月CPI数据点评：美国1月通胀数据仍属于正常范围

Inflation Data Summary - The January CPI in the U.S. increased by 0.5% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 0.3% and the previous value of 0.4%[4] - Year-on-year, the CPI rose by 3%, matching the previous expectation of 2.9%[4] - Core CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, above the expected 0.3% and previous 0.2%[4] Key Contributors to Inflation - Energy prices rose by 1.1% month-on-month, while food prices increased by 0.4%, with eggs seeing a significant rise of 15.2%, the largest since June 2015[6] - Core inflation rebounded to 0.45%, up from the previous 0.21%[6] - Major contributors to year-on-year inflation include housing (4%), car insurance (11.8%), medical care (2.6%), and education (3.8%) while clothing saw a decline of -1.4%[6] Market and Policy Implications - The current inflationary pressures are expected to remain within tolerable limits until at least February, with potential policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve if inflation continues to rise post-March[6] - The impact of tariffs and tax cuts on inflation is acknowledged, with a cautious approach to policy implementation due to rising inflation concerns[7] - Historical patterns suggest that inflation trends are influenced by the relative positioning and timing of policy rates, with a possibility of maintaining rates without immediate cuts in the first half of the year[8] Investment Outlook - The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield is projected to remain capped between 4.75% and 5%, with potential volatility in the stock market if yields approach 5%[9] - The S&P 500 is currently viewed as being in a bubble, exceeding long-term trends by 35%, suggesting a cautious but slightly positive investment stance[9] - Recommendations include maintaining long positions in equities while monitoring liquidity and adjusting bond allocations as necessary[11]