美国1月宏观月报：数据强劲、联储鹰派，降息仍需等待

Inflation Data - The US CPI for January increased by 3.0% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 2.9% and the previous value of 2.9%[3] - Core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 3.1% and the previous value of 3.2%[3] - Month-on-month CPI increased by 0.5%, against an expectation of 0.3% and a previous value of 0.4%[3] Employment Data - In January, the US added 143,000 non-farm jobs, lower than the expected 175,000 and the previous value of 307,000[4] - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.1% to 4.0%, aligning with the previous expectation of 4.1%[4] - The Labor Department revised the non-farm employment data for November and December, increasing November's figure from 227,000 to 261,000 and December's from 256,000 to 307,000[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance indicates that inflation and employment data do not support an imminent rate cut, pushing back market expectations for the first rate cut in 2025 to October[5] - Market sensitivity to economic data remains high, influenced by the policies of the Trump administration regarding tariffs, immigration, and taxes[5] Risk Factors - Persistent inflation exceeding expectations and tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve pose risks to the economic outlook[6]