宏观周报：非农似弱却不弱

Economic Outlook - The market is optimistic about China's AI sector following the rise of Deepseek, with discussions increasing significantly[1] - The upcoming Two Sessions are raising market attention, although expectations for policy changes are already high, making significant surprises unlikely[1] - Local government GDP growth targets for 2025 are set at around 5%, indicating a more pragmatic approach compared to 2024[6][7] Real Estate Market - New home sales in first, second, and third-tier cities are showing seasonal recovery, but the sustainability of this trend remains to be seen[10] - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a rebound in listing price indices, but it is crucial to monitor if this trend can stabilize[10] Bond Market - After the New Year, funding rates have started to decline but remain at relatively high levels; a loosening of the funding environment is expected to lead to lower bond yields[2][18] - The 10-year government bond yield is currently around 1.6%, with expectations for potential reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate reductions in the first quarter[2][18] U.S. Labor Market - In January, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 143,000, below the expected 170,000, but previous months' data was revised upward by 100,000[21][24] - The unemployment rate stands at 4%, slightly lower than the expected 4.1%, indicating a resilient labor market despite some data volatility[26][27] - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.5% month-over-month and 4.1% year-over-year, surpassing expectations[21][25]