海外市场周观察：如何看待特朗普关税新政

Group 1 - Global stock markets experienced a general increase, influenced by Trump's signing of a memorandum for reciprocal tariffs, which is expected to reduce trade friction risks and allow more time for negotiations with trade partners [1][8] - The U.S. inflation data showed a rebound, with January CPI at 3% and core CPI at 3.3%, both exceeding previous and expected values, leading to a notable adjustment in interest rate cut expectations [2][9] - The implementation of the new tariff policy is anticipated to be completed by April 1, allowing for further negotiations and potentially easing trade tensions, alongside a possible de-escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][8] Group 2 - Major global asset classes showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 7.04%, while the Japanese Yen depreciated by 1.44% against the Renminbi [3][31] - In the equity market, the U.S. information technology sector saw the highest increase at 3.28%, while the healthcare sector experienced a decline of 1.03% [42] - The commodity market displayed varied results, with COMEX silver rising by 1.95% and CBOT soybeans falling by 1.12% [48] Group 3 - The U.S. labor market showed resilience, with initial jobless claims decreasing to 213,000, lower than the previous value of 220,000 [9][10] - The NFIB small business confidence index for January recorded at 102.8, down from the previous value of 105.1, indicating a decline in business sentiment [9][10] - The Federal Reserve officials maintained a hawkish stance, with a 96% probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in March, emphasizing the need for careful assessment of economic conditions [10]