化工行业周报：2025年2月第2周

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Viewpoints - Recent trade frictions have raised concerns about economic growth, leading to downward pressure on oil prices, while leading stocks remain weak. The focus is on leading companies with strong alpha that are less correlated with oil prices, suggesting a bottom-fishing strategy. The instability in global situations has heightened the importance of food security, making the demand in the agriculture and food supply chain more rigid. There is optimism about the sustainability of the economic recovery and upward elasticity from supply-side adjustments [11] - Recommended companies include: - Wanhua Chemical: Core product MDI has seen recent profit improvements, with new petrochemical and new material projects set to launch [11] - Huangma Technology: A leader in specialty polyether, has responded positively to previous macro demand pressures and has re-entered a growth phase [11] - Jinhui Industrial: A leader in maltol and sucralose, with signs of marginal changes at the bottom of its main product cycle [11] - Yuntianhua: A leading company in the domestic phosphate chemical industry, with sustained demand for phosphate rock [11] Summary by Sections Section 1: Core Viewpoints - Trade frictions have raised economic growth concerns, impacting oil prices and stock performance [11] - Focus on companies with strong fundamentals and low correlation to oil prices for investment opportunities [11] - Emphasis on food security and agriculture demand as a stable investment area [11] Section 2: Oil and Chemical Prices Information - As of February 14, Brent oil price increased by 0.1% to $74.74 per barrel, with concerns over U.S. sanctions affecting oil supply [12] - U.S. commercial crude oil inventory as of February 7 was 427.9 million barrels, an increase of 4.1 million barrels week-on-week [12] - Among 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases were petroleum coke (up 24.0%), natural gas (up 12.5%), and acetone (up 7.6%) [13] Section 3: Price Changes - Weekly price changes showed significant increases in petroleum coke and natural gas, while liquid chlorine saw a notable decrease of 26.9% [14] - Monthly price changes indicated petroleum coke had the highest increase of 59.2%, while liquid chlorine experienced a drastic drop of 1207.7% [14] Section 4: Price Spread Changes - The top three products with the largest weekly price spread increases were R410a spread (up 200.0%), BDO spread (up 67.7%), and polypropylene spread (up 39.1%) [16] - Monthly changes showed R410a spread also leading with a 200.0% increase, while diammonium phosphate saw a significant drop of 93.9% [16]