轻工纺服行业周报：节后纸企频发涨价函，旺季临近文化纸或率先复苏

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Hold" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that paper companies are frequently issuing price increase notices as the peak season approaches, with cultural paper expected to recover first. The price of wood pulp has been rising since the beginning of the year, providing cost support for price increases in pulp and paper. As of February 14, 2025, the average prices for needle and broadleaf pulp were 6584.46 CNY/ton and 4945.91 CNY/ton, respectively, showing increases of 191.96 CNY/ton and 267.5 CNY/ton compared to early January [5][26][24]. - Cultural paper prices are showing a positive upward trend, which is expected to improve the performance of paper companies. As of February 14, 2025, the prices for double copper paper and double glue paper were 5600 CNY/ton and 5412.5 CNY/ton, respectively, up by 25 CNY/ton and 70 CNY/ton since early January [26][24]. - The report anticipates a "small spring" for the paper industry in 2025, driven by new stockpiling of educational materials and rigid demand for cultural paper in textbooks and journals, which will improve the demand structure post-holiday [26][24]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - From February 10 to February 14, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.30%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.64%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.88%. The light industry manufacturing sector increased by 1.30%, ranking 12th among 31 industry indices, while the textile and apparel sector rose by 1.18%, ranking 16th [6][36]. Key Data Tracking Home Furnishing - From February 2 to February 9, 2025, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 657,100 square meters, a 380.38% increase month-on-month. The new housing starts in 2024 totaled 537 million square meters, down 23% year-on-year [9][57]. Packaging and Paper Data - As of February 14, 2025, the prices for needle pulp, broadleaf pulp, and chemical pulp were 6584.46 CNY/ton, 4945.91 CNY/ton, and 3633.33 CNY/ton, respectively. The prices for waste paper types showed slight variations, with waste yellow board paper at 1462 CNY/ton, waste book paper at 1585 CNY/ton, and waste pure newspaper at 2205 CNY/ton [10][24]. Textile and Apparel Data - As of February 14, 2025, the cotton price index in China was 14894 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.52%. The retail sales of clothing, shoes, and hats in December 2024 were 162.9 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% [11][13]. Investment Recommendations - For the home furnishing sector, the report suggests focusing on leading companies with stable operations and high growth potential in the smart home segment due to favorable external demand and domestic policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [13]. - In the paper sector, the report recommends attention to companies with diversified products and integrated operations, particularly those that can effectively implement price increases in response to rising raw material costs [13]. - The packaging sector is highlighted for potential growth if the acquisition of COFCO Packaging is successful, which would increase industry concentration and enhance pricing power for leading firms [13].