国君建材|从产业链负债表预判实物量拐点的新视角

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - A new perspective on assessing physical volume rhythm through the industry chain balance sheet has been established, which helps explain and predict the rhythm of physical volume demand, indicating a potential stabilization point in year-on-year physical volume by the second half of 2025 [1][2] - The construction industry has not yet shown signs of a right-side balance sheet contraction point as of Q3 2024, but it is reasonable to infer that the debt levels are near stabilization, with major enterprises' debt ratios recovering to around 75%, suggesting that key behavioral change points in the industry are approaching [2] - The demand is highly sensitive to funding, with a focus on downstream capital injection being crucial for future demand elasticity, particularly in infrastructure financing and real estate sales [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The industry is transitioning to a balance sheet contraction model, with real estate enterprises leading this trend since 2021, which has been a primary factor in the decline of physical volume in 2022-2023 [1] - Infrastructure entities are expected to start their balance sheet contraction in 2024, which will significantly impact physical volume [1] Financial Performance - The construction materials sector is anticipated to show a favorable base effect in revenue starting from Q3 2024, with leading companies in the sector expected to demonstrate improved financial performance post-2025H2 due to industry optimization and competitive advantages [3] Future Outlook - The key inflection point for the current cycle of physical volume decline is projected to occur in the second half of 2025, with potential early signs observable from the first half of 2025 [2]