INTCO MEDICAL(300677) 甬兴证券·2025-02-17 11:08Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Inco Medical, based on its potential to benefit from the recovery of nitrile glove prices and its position as a global leader in disposable glove production [3]. Core Views - The nitrile glove prices have stabilized and are on the rise, with a significant increase from a low of 17.99 per box by October 2024. This recovery is attributed to the exit of high-cost production capacities and the aging of Malaysian production facilities [1][34]. - Inco Medical has become a leading disposable glove manufacturer globally, with a total capacity of 87 billion gloves, including 56 billion nitrile gloves, positioning it just behind Top Glove in terms of production capacity but ahead in revenue [2][27]. - The company is expected to see substantial growth in net profit, with projections for 2024 indicating a net profit of 1.2 to 1.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 213% to 292% [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Glove Industry Overview - The disposable medical glove industry is experiencing a rebound, with nitrile gloves becoming the main product in the incremental market due to their superior properties compared to PVC and latex gloves [13]. - The global sales volume of nitrile gloves is projected to grow at a CAGR of 11.6% from 2022 to 2025, outpacing the overall glove market growth [23]. 2. Nitrile Glove Price Recovery - Nitrile glove prices have shown a recovery trend since February 2024, with the average export price increasing from 17.99 per box in October 2024 [1][34]. - The price of nitrile latex, a key raw material for glove production, has also risen, contributing to the potential for price increases in end products [38]. 3. Company Position and Performance - Inco Medical's production capacity is significant, with 870 million gloves produced, making it a leader in the industry. The company has also established a strong upstream material supply chain by holding stakes in several nitrile latex production companies [2][27]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be approximately 9.43 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 36.3% [5]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The financial forecast for Inco Medical indicates a net profit of approximately 1.33 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected PE ratio of around 12.7X for 2024 [3][5]. - The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge due to its scale, cost control, and upstream material layout, which are anticipated to drive continued profitability [3].