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农林牧渔行业定期报告:猪价低位运行,1月三方能繁环比转负或微增
Huafu Securities·2025-02-17 13:52

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that pig prices are currently at a low level, with a slight rebound supported by increased second-stage fattening activity due to reduced supply of large pigs [2][15]. - The white feather broiler market is experiencing downward pressure on prices due to abundant supply and limited processing capacity, exacerbated by recent avian influenza outbreaks affecting import sources [3][42]. - The release of the rural revitalization plan is expected to enhance agricultural modernization, with a focus on seed industry development and food security [52][56]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Pig prices are low, with the average price on February 16 at 14.73 CNY/kg, a week-on-week increase of 0.35 CNY/kg, but the weekly average still decreased by 0.56 CNY/kg [2][15]. - The slaughter volume has increased to 124,000 heads, a 19.27% rise from the previous week, while the frozen product inventory rate slightly increased to 14.57% [17]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter rose to 125.04 kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.86 kg, indicating a stronger price differential for heavier pigs [24][34]. White Feather Broilers - The price of white feather broilers has decreased to 6.17 CNY/kg, down 0.95 CNY/kg week-on-week, with chick prices also declining to 1.96 CNY/chick [3][36]. - The processing rate of slaughterhouses is lower than the previous year, at 74.15%, contributing to the price drop [3][36]. - The avian influenza outbreaks in the U.S. and New Zealand have restricted imports, potentially prolonging the favorable cycle for domestic broiler producers [3][42]. Seed Industry - The rural revitalization plan aims for substantial progress by 2027, emphasizing agricultural modernization and food security [52][56]. - Key tasks include enhancing grain production capacity and accelerating seed industry development, which may benefit leading companies in the sector [52][56]. - The report suggests that companies like Dabeinong, Longping High-Tech, and others are well-positioned to benefit from these developments [52][56].