金开新能：算力业务稳步发展，打造第二增长曲线-20250218

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the steady development of the company's computing power business, which is expected to create a second growth curve for the company [2] - The company is benefiting from the market-oriented reform of renewable energy grid prices, which is anticipated to maintain reasonable returns for renewable energy projects [3] - The company has signed a contract for AI computing power services, marking its first project in the integration of renewable energy and computing centers, which is expected to contribute significantly to future revenue [20] Summary by Relevant Sections Renewable Energy Pricing and Market Reforms - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued a notice to promote market-oriented pricing for renewable energy, allowing all renewable energy projects to participate in market transactions [4][7] - A sustainable pricing settlement mechanism for renewable energy has been established, which will provide price compensation when market prices fall below a set mechanism price, thus stabilizing revenue expectations for renewable energy projects [3][7] Company Capacity and Generation Growth - As of September 2024, the company has a cumulative installed capacity of 4,976 MW, with wind and solar capacities of 1,390 MW and 3,459 MW, respectively [8] - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company added 496 MW of new capacity, with solar energy accounting for the majority of the increase [8] - The total electricity generation for the first three quarters of 2024 was 6.179 billion kWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.31% [8] AI Computing Power Contract - The company’s subsidiary signed a contract worth 69.12 million yuan (including tax) to provide computing power and related services, which is expected to generate significant revenue [20] - This project is seen as a critical step in integrating computing power with renewable energy, potentially leading to further growth in the company's operational performance [20] Financial Projections - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts due to declining electricity prices, projecting net profits of 850 million, 940 million, and 1.05 billion yuan for 2024-2026, respectively [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.42, 0.47, and 0.53 yuan for the same period, with the current stock price corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 13.1, 11.8, and 10.6 [3] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.00 yuan per share for the first half of 2024, amounting to 197 million yuan, which represents 40.38% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [3]