有色金属与新材料周报：金价中枢攀升下，关注工业金属“硬商品”定价逻辑

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [52] Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: Short-term volatility is increasing, but the long-term outlook remains bullish. As of February 14, COMEX gold futures rose by 0.26% to $2893.7 per ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF decreased by 0.6% to 863.1 tons. The geopolitical situation and inflation expectations are key drivers for gold pricing [4] - Industrial Metals: With the rising gold price, attention should be paid to the pricing logic of industrial metals as "hard commodities" [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Index Trends - As of February 14, 2025, the non-ferrous metal index closed at 5133.53 points, down 0.2% from the previous period. The precious metal index remained flat, while the industrial metal index rose by 0.4% [14] 2. Precious Metals 2.1 Gold - The report indicates that the macroeconomic backdrop, including inflation expectations and weakening dollar credit, will support gold prices in the long term [4] 3. Industrial Metals 3.1 Copper - As of February 14, SHFE copper futures rose by 1.1% to 78,090 yuan per ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 376,200 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 53,100 tons. The LME copper inventory was 255,200 tons, with a slight increase. The report suggests that the demand for industrial metals is expected to rise due to a recovery in manufacturing [9][10] 3.2 Aluminum - As of February 14, SHFE aluminum futures increased by 0.5% to 20,710 yuan per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory was 763,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory continued to decrease. The report highlights that the supply-demand dynamics for aluminum are expected to improve, leading to a potential upward trend in aluminum prices [10] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the copper and aluminum sectors. For copper, the domestic demand is gradually recovering, and the global demand for refined copper is expected to grow. The report suggests关注紫金矿业 (Zijin Mining). For aluminum, the report indicates that the supply-demand imbalance is likely to accelerate, recommending关注天山股份 (Tianshan Shares) [10][49]