东兴证券：东兴晨报-20250218

Group 1: Tesla Automotive Business - Tesla's global vehicle deliveries in 2024 were 1.789 million units, down 1% year-on-year, falling short of expectations, with significant declines in the US and Europe due to weak market demand [1] - The company plans to launch multiple new models in 2025, including a low-cost model expected in the first half of 2025 and the Semi electric truck, which is projected to begin mass production by the end of 2025 [1][7] - The average selling price (ASP) of vehicles fell below $40,000 in Q4, with a year-on-year decline in vehicle gross margin of 21% and 10% for Q4 and the full year, respectively, indicating pressure on profitability [1] Group 2: Autonomous Driving Technology - Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology has been upgraded to version 13, achieving nearly 3 billion miles driven with an accident rate of 1 in 594 million miles, marking a historical performance [2] - The company plans to pilot a fully autonomous FSD mode in Austin, Texas, in June 2025, with broader rollout expected by the end of the year, which could catalyze further advancements in autonomous driving technology [2] - Tesla is also accelerating the introduction of FSD in China and Europe, having initiated the application process for domestic value-added telecommunications services [2] Group 3: Energy Business - Tesla's energy business revenue grew by 67% year-on-year in 2024, driven by significant increases in Megapack and Powerwall installations, with Q4 installations reaching 11.0 GWh, up 244% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The company’s Shanghai energy storage super factory has commenced production, with a planned capacity of 40 GWh, and aims for over 50% growth in energy installations in 2025 [3][7] Group 4: Humanoid Robots - Tesla plans to produce between 6,000 to 10,000 units of the V1 version of the Optimus humanoid robot in 2025, with a design capacity of 1,000 units per month, and aims to launch the V2 version in the first half of 2026 [7] - The expected pricing for the humanoid robot is projected to be between $20,000 to $30,000, indicating a clear path towards commercialization [7] Group 5: Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes that the future competitiveness of automotive companies will hinge on their autonomous driving capabilities, with Tesla being a leader in this field [8] - It highlights the potential of domestic companies like Huawei, which is leveraging its ICT expertise to build a competitive edge in the smart vehicle sector [8] - The report suggests monitoring Tesla's energy supply chain and the anticipated mass production of humanoid robots in 2025, as well as potential collaborations with domestic manufacturers [8]