宏观观察2025年第07期（总第579期）：近期我国国债收益率 持续下行的原因及建议＊

Group 1: Recent Trends in Government Bond Yields - Since the beginning of 2024, China's government bond yields, particularly the 10-year yield, have declined rapidly from 2.56% at the start of the year to 1.68% by the end of December 2024, marking a significant drop of 88 basis points[5][11]. - The decline in bond yields has outpaced the reduction in policy interest rates, indicating a potential "overshooting" phenomenon in the market[11]. - In December 2024, the 1-year government bond yield fell below 1% for the first time since 2009, while the 10-year yield briefly dropped below 1.60%, setting a historical low[11][17]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Yield Decline - The continuous easing of monetary policy has created favorable conditions for a bull market in bonds, with the People's Bank of China (PBOC) reducing the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates significantly[12][14]. - Investment institutions have significantly increased their allocation to bond assets, with bond trading volume in 2024 reaching 416.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.56%, and government bond transactions rising by 52.74% to 125.14 trillion yuan[16][17]. - The trading volume of government bonds in 2024 was approximately 30.05% of the total bond trading volume, reflecting a 6.73 percentage point increase from 2023[16][24]. Group 3: Risks and Recommendations - The rapid increase in bond trading and the corresponding decline in yields have raised concerns about potential market risks, including over-leverage among investment institutions[27][32]. - Regulatory authorities are advised to enhance communication and supervision to guide the market back to rationality and prevent excessive speculation in the bond market[36][38]. - Investment institutions should optimize their asset allocation strategies and improve risk management capabilities to mitigate market risks, especially in light of the current overvaluation in bond prices[39].