XIAOMI(01810) 国盛证券·2025-02-18 06:33Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [3][6]. Core Views - Xiaomi Group's smartphone shipments reached 42.7 million units in Q4 2024, marking a 4.8% year-on-year increase, with a global market share of 12.9%, positioning it among the top three manufacturers [1]. - In the Chinese market, Xiaomi's smartphone shipments grew by 28.4% year-on-year, driven by the success of the Xiaomi 15 series and local subsidies for high-end devices [1]. - The IoT business is expected to benefit from the 2024 appliance replacement subsidy policy, leading to significant revenue growth [2]. - The automotive segment delivered 135,000 units in 2024, with a target of 300,000 units for 2025, indicating strong growth potential [2][3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at CNY 362.9 billion, CNY 456.2 billion, and CNY 596.8 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 34%, 26%, and 31% respectively [3][11]. - Adjusted net profit for the consumer electronics segment is projected to be CNY 32.1 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 10% [3][11]. - The report anticipates a continued upward trend in IoT gross margins due to improvements in product quality and cost efficiency [2][3]. Market Performance - Xiaomi's stock closed at HKD 45.15 on February 17, 2025, with a total market capitalization of approximately HKD 1.13 trillion [6]. - The report sets a target price of HKD 54 for Xiaomi Group based on a 20x P/E ratio for the consumer electronics segment and a 2x P/S ratio for the automotive segment [3].