钢铁行业周报：节后开工，板材需求复苏好于长材

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [2][7] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a recovery in demand for steel, particularly in flat steel products, which is outperforming long steel products [4][5] - The social inventory of steel has increased week-on-week but decreased year-on-year, indicating a mixed supply-demand scenario [28][29] - The report highlights the resilience of the steel market fundamentals despite slow recovery in demand, supported by expectations from upcoming political meetings [50][52] Supply Side Summary - As of February 14, 2025, the total production of five major steel products reached 8.1372 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.63% and a year-on-year increase of 1.20% [14] - The average daily pig iron production from 247 steel enterprises was 2.2799 million tons, showing a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.20% but a year-on-year increase of 1.53% [14] - The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces was 85.6%, down 0.16 percentage points week-on-week but up 1.63 percentage points year-on-year [14] Demand Side Summary - The total consumption of five major steel products was 6.6235 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 15.05% and a year-on-year increase of 38.38% [18] - The daily transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 70,800 tons, up 60.34% compared to the pre-holiday period, indicating steady demand recovery [18] - Monthly steel exports reached 9.7269 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 4.83% and a year-on-year increase of 25.87% [18] Inventory Summary - As of February 14, 2025, the total social inventory of five major steel products was 12.7975 million tons, up 11.54% week-on-week but down 11.60% year-on-year [28] - The total factory inventory of five major steel products was 5.4275 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.63% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.20% [30] Cost Summary - The price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 810.8 RMB/wet ton, up 1.01% week-on-week but down 19.00% year-on-year [43] - The comprehensive price index for scrap steel was 2,547.17 RMB/ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.10% but a year-on-year decrease of 16.13% [43] - The price index for low-sulfur coking coal was 1,378.16 RMB/ton, down 0.61% week-on-week and down 43.20% year-on-year [44] Price Summary - As of February 14, 2025, the Mysteel absolute price index for ordinary steel was 3,579.2 RMB/ton, down 1.02% week-on-week and down 15.43% year-on-year [46] - The Mysteel absolute price index for special steel was 9,487.73 RMB/ton, showing a slight week-on-week increase of 0.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.50% [46] - The global steel price index was 196.5 points, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.87% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.16% [46]