大类资产交易逻辑观察：海外复苏的幻象

Core Insights - The report highlights a global risk-on sentiment emerging after tariff shocks, with A-shares, non-ferrous metals, and gold regaining confidence, reminiscent of the Q2 2024 market atmosphere [3] - Current macroeconomic conditions differ significantly from Q2 2024, with the global economy in a more fragile state, as evidenced by the global credit pulse peaking in Q2 2024 and a rapid decline in manufacturing sentiment [3][4] - The report suggests that the recent rebound in global risk assets is primarily driven by market fatigue regarding tariffs, particularly after the introduction of "gradual tariffs" in mid-January, which led to a nearly 10% increase in European stocks over the past month [3] Economic Environment - The U.S. economy is maintaining a delicate balance, with mixed signals from employment data and service sector PMI, indicating some underlying weakness [3] - The report draws parallels to the 2014-2015 credit pulse downturn, suggesting that while there may be short-term rebounds in commodities, the overall trend is likely to remain downward [3][4] - The report emphasizes caution regarding energy and industrial metals, while suggesting a more favorable outlook for agricultural products, particularly cotton, due to a projected 14% decrease in U.S. cotton planting area [3][7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on agricultural products, particularly cotton, as the U.S. cotton planting intentions indicate a significant reduction, which could drive prices higher during the demand peak in March and April [3][7] - It is advised to remain vigilant regarding the macroeconomic backdrop, as the dollar has not yet broken previous support levels, and U.S. Treasury yields continue to indicate economic pressures [3][6]