轻工制造行业2024年业绩预告综述：轻工业绩预告表现平淡，预盈率为53%

Investment Rating - The light industry is rated as outperforming the market, indicating a potential increase of over 10% relative to the market index in the next six months [4][27]. Core Insights - As of February 9, 2025, the light manufacturing industry has 163 A-share companies, with 91 having released earnings forecasts, resulting in a disclosure rate of 56%, ranking second among eight major consumer sectors. The industry’s pre-earnings ratio stands at 53%, placing it sixth among these sectors [2][10][24]. - The paper-making sector shows a higher pre-earnings ratio of 69%, while the entertainment and home goods sectors also maintain over 50% [3][13][24]. - The report highlights a decline in the proportion of companies expecting profit increases for 2024 compared to 2023, with 22% of light industry companies forecasting their first losses and 25% continuing to report losses [2][10]. Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast Overview - The light manufacturing industry has a pre-earnings ratio of 53%, with 48 companies expected to be profitable in 2024. The proportion of companies forecasting profit increases has decreased, while those expecting slight increases has risen [2][10][24]. Subsector Performance - The paper-making sector has a pre-earnings ratio of 69%, while entertainment and home goods sectors have ratios of 58% and 51%, respectively. The packaging and printing sector has a lower pre-earnings ratio of 43% [3][13][24]. - The report indicates that 42% of entertainment goods companies are forecasting losses, with a notable increase in the proportion of companies expecting to report their first losses [3][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the following areas: 1. Paper-making: Companies with advantageous capacity layouts and excellent management are recommended due to rising pulp prices and increased product prices [24]. 2. Entertainment Goods: Companies with IP operations and cross-industry collaboration capabilities are highlighted [24]. 3. Home Goods: Companies with strong product capabilities and diverse channels are recommended, especially with upcoming policies to stabilize the real estate market [24]. 4. Packaging and Printing: Companies benefiting from increased demand in related downstream categories are suggested [24].