国君2025春季策略|食饮:转变的起点

Investment Rating - The report suggests a preference for growth stocks while increasing allocation in stable categories such as beer, condiments, and beverages [1] Core Insights - The white liquor sector is expected to warm up with valuation recovery anticipated. The initial recovery is expected in the real estate liquor segment, followed by high-end and then sub-high-end liquor, with the latter having a longer recovery cycle. The industry is entering a downward phase starting Q2 2024, with H1 2025 expected to see bottom fluctuations, and the inventory digestion progress in 2025 will depend on the growth targets of liquor companies [1] - The beer sector is expected to recover, while the beverage category shows structural prosperity. Beer performance is showing slight improvement, and the beverage category remains stable. Low-price/high-frequency consumption beverages are benefiting significantly from current demand trends, with regional brands outperforming national brands in the beer sector. The beer segment is expected to recover under low expectations for 2025, with passive upgrade trends and regional brand advantages continuing [1] - The mass consumer goods sector shows marginal improvement with structural differentiation. During the Spring Festival, snack sales performed best, condiments achieved a good start, while dairy products and frozen foods remained weak. As costs decrease, low-cost and low-price trends are emerging, highlighting the advantages of high cost-performance products. The focus is on growth sectors like snacks, along with adjusted condiments, catering supply chains, and undervalued, high-dividend stocks [1]