国君2025春季策略|石油:特朗普对能源市场影响不断增强

Investment Rating - The report suggests a long-term focus on the valuation recovery opportunities of leading downstream chemical enterprises [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of dividends and share buybacks, indicating that state-owned enterprises with high dividend yields possess investment value. It anticipates an improvement in cyclical profitability in the second half of 2025, with profits shifting from upstream to downstream sectors, leading to a potential recovery in the downstream industry's prosperity. Leading chemical enterprises with cost competitiveness are expected to experience valuation recovery [1] - The report highlights the strong reality and weak expectations of crude oil, noting that Brent crude oil net long positions were at a high as of January 28. Global crude oil inventories are at historically low levels, and sanctions have led to a short-term supply reduction, resulting in a rebound in oil product profits. However, uncertainties arise from Trump's potential push for negotiations regarding Russia and Ukraine, as well as his policies in the Middle East and efforts to lower energy prices [2] - The report discusses the impact of Trump's statements and policies on the energy sector, indicating that his social media comments have historically caused price fluctuations in the energy market. The expressions of government officials regarding geopolitical and energy sector views have also contributed to these price changes [3] - The actual effects of Trump's policies on the energy sector are deemed crucial, with the potential for significant inventory accumulation in 2025 if sanctions are not considered. The execution of sanctions will influence the annual balance sheet expectations, with supply fluctuations expected to be substantial compared to demand [4]