农林牧渔行业报告：猪价淡季止跌

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry index for agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery has shown a rebound, with a 1.06% increase, ranking 17th among 31 primary industries [2][11] - Pig prices have stopped declining and are showing signs of recovery, with prices rising from 14.37 CNY/kg to 14.69 CNY/kg during the week [3][17] - The supply of pigs remains ample, and the industry is cautiously expanding production capacity, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.60% in the breeding stock as of December [3][20] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The agriculture sector has rebounded, with the industry index increasing by 1.06%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices rose by 1.19% and 1.30%, respectively [11][13] - The animal health sector experienced the most significant rebound within the agriculture sector [15] 2. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking 2.1 Pigs - Prices initially fell but then slightly rebounded, with the average price reaching 14.69 CNY/kg by the end of the week [3][17] - The average profit for self-bred pigs is approximately 22 CNY per head, while purchased piglets incur a loss of about 4 CNY per head [18] - The breeding stock as of December was reported at 40.78 million heads, reflecting a cautious approach to production expansion [20] 2.2 Broilers - The price of broiler chicks has significantly decreased to 2.25 CNY per chick, with average losses of 0.5-0.8 CNY per chick [5][26] - The average price for broiler meat has dropped by 19.42% to 2.93 CNY per jin, leading to expected losses of 3.5 CNY per chick [5][26] - The industry faces uncertainties due to severe diseases affecting poultry and the closure of overseas breeding channels [5][28] 3. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have rebounded significantly, with the price of white sugar reaching 6070 CNY/ton, an increase of 85 CNY/ton from the previous week [31] - The price of Brazilian soybeans has slightly adjusted to 3557 CNY/ton, down 1.4% from the previous week [33] - Cotton prices have shown minor fluctuations, currently at 14889 CNY/ton, up 0.44% [33] - Corn prices have increased slightly to 2119 CNY/ton, with a rise of 17 CNY/ton [33]