轻工制造：造纸：浆纸同涨、盈利回暖

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that both pulp and paper prices are rising, leading to an expected recovery in profitability for the industry. The overseas pulp supply is experiencing disruptions due to maintenance and strikes, resulting in price increases. The report anticipates continued price hikes in March 2025, with significant increases noted in both international and domestic markets [2][3] - The report indicates that paper companies are collectively raising prices across various paper types, including cultural paper, white card paper, and packaging paper, with expected steady price increases and optimistic outlooks for inventory and orders [3] - The profitability for both pulp and paper segments is expected to improve due to lower raw material costs and successful price increases. The report notes specific percentage increases in prices for various paper types compared to the previous quarter [3] Summary by Sections Pulp Supply and Pricing - The overseas pulp supply is facing ongoing disruptions, with price increases of $40/ton for hardwood pulp and $30/ton for softwood pulp since January, reaching $590/ton and $815/ton respectively. Domestic prices have also risen to 4,950 CNY/ton for hardwood pulp and 6,587 CNY/ton for softwood pulp [2] - The report expects continued upward pressure on pulp prices due to limited new global production capacity and strong pricing intentions from domestic pulp manufacturers [2] Price Increases and Market Outlook - Paper companies have announced price increases for various products, including a general increase of 200 CNY/ton for cultural and white card papers. The report anticipates that these price increases will be implemented steadily, with a positive outlook for demand and inventory levels [3] - The report notes that the packaging paper market has seen rapid price increases, but it expects price fluctuations moving forward, with some companies already announcing price reductions [3] Profitability Expectations - The report forecasts improved profitability for the pulp and paper sectors in Q1 2025, driven by lower raw material costs and successful price increases. Specific profitability improvements are noted for various paper types, with increases of 3.5% for double glue paper, 1.9% for coated paper, and 2.6% for white card paper compared to Q4 2024 [3] - The report emphasizes the ongoing development of upstream pulp and paper companies, which is expected to enhance performance during the pulp and paper price increase cycle [3] Companies to Watch - The report suggests focusing on companies with integrated pulp and paper operations and improving profitability, such as Sun Paper, Xianhe Co., and Nine Dragons Paper. It also highlights other companies like Huawang Technology, Wuzhou Special Paper, and Shanying International as potential investment opportunities [4]