适度宽松的货币政策要兼顾内外均衡

Monetary Policy Insights - The overall tone of monetary policy remains moderately accommodative, with potential for rate cuts in April, contingent on the RMB/USD exchange rate reaching around 7.1[11] - The central bank's balance sheet contraction in 2024 is not indicative of tightening monetary policy, primarily due to a decrease in foreign exchange assets and claims on other deposit-taking institutions[2] - The report indicates a more proactive stance on reducing corporate financing and household credit costs, with a projected decline in weighted loan rates of at least 55 basis points in 2025[23] Real Estate and Risk Management - The focus of real estate policy has shifted towards managing existing assets, with a decreased likelihood of new incremental policies, emphasizing the revitalization of existing properties and land[25] - Risk prevention measures are being deepened, with expectations for continued recovery in social risk appetite, supported by enhanced macro-prudential measures and financial stability tools[29] - The central bank's support for government bonds increased by 1.35 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a coordinated monetary and fiscal policy approach to stabilize the economy[19] Economic Context and External Factors - The report highlights that external uncertainties, particularly from the U.S. trade policies, continue to exert depreciation pressure on the RMB, impacting the central bank's foreign exchange assets[18] - The anticipated stabilization of U.S. trade policies in April may alleviate some depreciation pressures on the RMB, potentially enhancing the conditions for a more accommodative monetary policy[12]