地产行业月报：板块配置性价比凸显，关注3月楼市表现

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The recent rebound in the real estate sector is attributed to significant price corrections, the release of negative earnings, and the approaching window for policy and fundamental negotiations. Key catalysts for the increased attention on real estate include: 1) Full intervention by state-owned enterprises in Vanke's management, providing financing support and boosting market confidence; 2) Gradual recovery in core cities post-holiday; 3) The substantial rise in the technology sector, combined with the nearing policy and fundamental negotiation window, highlights the relative investment value of real estate [3] - Despite high inventory levels and constraints on housing prices and income expectations, the market's sharp decline is believed to have passed. The introduction of high-quality products may attract some demand back from the secondary market to new homes, leading to stabilization in the market for quality products. The focus is on the performance of the housing market in March [3] - Recommended stocks include companies with lighter historical burdens and optimized inventory structures such as China Overseas Development, China Resources Land, and Greentown China, as well as companies with valuation recovery potential like Vanke A and Jindi Group [3] Policy Summary - In January, the real estate sector entered a policy lull, with nine policies released, all of which were accommodative. Many regions plan to use special bonds for land storage, accelerating the industry's destocking pace [4][5][8][7] Financial Summary - In January, personal housing loans showed signs of recovery, with new loans amounting to 244.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 151.9 billion yuan. The new loan interest rate remained stable at 3.11% [10][12][16] - The real estate sector's performance in January saw a decline of 6.12%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 2.99%. As of February 17, 2025, the sector's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) was 36.42, significantly higher than the CSI 300's 12.76, placing it in the 95.2 percentile of the past five years [40][42] Market Performance - In January, the average daily transaction of new homes in 50 key cities dropped by 53.4% month-on-month and 15.2% year-on-year. The average daily transaction of second-hand homes in 20 key cities fell by 37.2% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year [20] - The average price of residential properties in 100 cities in January was 16,693 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.23%, marking the 17th consecutive month of stabilization and recovery [26] Land Supply and Transaction - In January, land supply in 100 cities decreased by 41.6% month-on-month, while land transaction volume fell by 75.1%. The average premium rate for land transactions was 9.52%, an increase of 5.9 percentage points [29]