Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - The expectation for monetary easing is strong, with the 10-year government bond yield likely to stabilize between 1.2% and 1.5% if the central bank lowers the OMO policy rate by 30-50 basis points in 2025[2] - A-share earnings growth is expected to stabilize in Q4 2025, potentially earlier in Q3 under optimistic scenarios, indicating that the market bottom may appear before the earnings bottom[2] - The international oil price is projected to average between $65 and $70 per barrel in 2025, down from $75 to $80 in 2024, due to a global supply surplus[2] Group 2: U.S. Market Dynamics - The U.S. Treasury yield curve is expected to reflect higher long-term rates, with the market anticipating 1-2 rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the second half of 2025[27] - The dollar is likely to strengthen due to tariffs impacting trade partners' economies, increasing inflationary pressures in the U.S., and heightened market risk aversion[2] - U.S. stock market volatility has increased, with core support stemming from the government's focus on the economy and the Fed's remaining rate cut potential, although caution is advised due to inflation risks and tariff impacts[42] Group 3: Commodity Insights - Gold prices have recently reached new highs, driven by the decline in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index, with various factors likely to support gold prices throughout 2025[55] - The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, is influenced by U.S. policy changes, with a significant probability (around 40%) that Bitcoin could be included in U.S. strategic reserves by 2025[64] - The oil market is expected to shift to a supply surplus by Q2 2025, influenced by OPEC+ production plans and U.S. energy policies[69]
在波动中谋布局：2025年开年宏观展望：资产篇
Ping An Securities·2025-02-18 11:30