东兴证券：东兴晨报-20250219

Group 1: Company Overview - The company, Longxin Zhongke (688047.SH), expects to achieve approximately 506 million yuan in revenue for 2024, remaining stable compared to the previous year, but anticipates a net loss of around 619 million yuan, a decrease of approximately 87.89% year-on-year [1][2] - The company has successfully launched devices equipped with the Longxin 3A CPU, enabling local deployment of the DeepSeek R1 7B model, which enhances operational efficiency without relying on cloud servers [1][3] Group 2: Financial Performance - The company's revenue is under pressure due to a contraction in downstream demand and a strategic reduction in solution-based business, although new products like the 3A6000 and 2K0300 are expected to drive revenue growth in the second half of 2024 [2][7] - The gross margin is affected by high fixed costs and a decline in industrial control chip revenue, despite a significant increase in sales of information technology products [2][7] - Credit impairment losses and asset impairment losses are expected to exceed 200 million yuan, primarily due to lower-than-expected customer repayments and inventory write-downs [2][7] Group 3: Industry Trends - The company is actively pursuing AI large model local deployment, collaborating with partners to adapt the DeepSeek-R1 series models for various applications, which is expected to benefit from the "AI + Xinchuang" industry trend [3][7] - The overall market for electronic government services is beginning to recover, which may provide new opportunities for the company [2][7] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company is viewed positively for its long-term development potential despite short-term challenges, with a revised net profit forecast for 2024-2026 of -618 million, 1.3 million, and 8.9 million yuan, respectively [7] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-sales ratio of 105, 80, and 58 for 2024-2026, maintaining a "recommended" rating [7]