有色金属及产业链月报（2025年2月）：金属铜、铝价小幅走低 生产需求持续缓慢回暖

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the industry, indicating a potential rise in the market index over the next six months [67]. Core Insights - The report highlights a gradual recovery in production demand for non-ferrous metals, particularly copper and aluminum, despite recent price declines [1][61]. - It emphasizes the importance of upstream resource availability and stable mining reserves, recommending companies with rich mineral resources [61]. - The report notes that while there is a short-term rebound in copper prices, the overall demand from downstream sectors may continue to contract [61]. Summary by Sections Commodity, Supply and Production - In January 2025, China's electrolytic copper inventory was approximately 115,600 tons, showing a decline of over 73% since June 2024, contributing to price instability [9]. - The global electrolytic copper inventory reached 1.53 million tons by December 2024, with a month-on-month increase of 7.3% and a year-on-year growth of 13.5% [9]. - China's electrolytic copper production in January 2025 was 1.0578 million tons, while consumption in December 2024 was 1.4205 million tons, indicating a persistent consumption gap [9]. Metal Industry Chain - The report indicates that the average capacity utilization rate for copper processing enterprises with a monthly capacity of over 60,000 tons was 109% in December 2024, reflecting an improvement in operational efficiency [13]. - In January 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.766 million tons, with consumption at approximately 3.936 million tons, indicating a narrowing demand gap [20]. Conclusion and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with integrated production chains that can benefit from cost advantages, such as Yunnan Copper and Jiangxi Copper [61]. - It also highlights the continued strong demand for electrolytic aluminum, recommending companies like Xinjiang Zhonghe and Yun Aluminum [61]. - The report anticipates a recovery in aluminum prices within the year, benefiting companies with rich mineral resources, such as Tianshan Aluminum [61].