轮胎行业月报：2024年高景气收官，节后开工恢复性提升

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating for the tire industry, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [55]. Core Insights - The tire industry experienced strong performance in 2024, with production and sales reaching high levels, and exports hitting a five-year peak. The market is expected to gradually recover post-holiday, particularly in export orders as overseas distributors replenish stock [55]. - The report highlights the mixed trends in raw material prices and an increase in shipping indices, which could impact cost structures in the industry [5][14]. Cost Side - In January 2025, the average price of key raw materials showed mixed trends: - Butadiene: 12,028.26 CNY/ton, up 15.42% month-on-month and 36.08% year-on-year - Natural rubber: 2,038.95 USD/ton, down 1.82% month-on-month but up 31.83% year-on-year - Styrene-butadiene rubber: 15,223.91 CNY/ton, up 2.66% month-on-month and 25.28% year-on-year - Carbon black: 6,829.03 CNY/ton, down 6.24% month-on-month and down 10.24% year-on-year - Nylon cord fabric: 20,500.00 CNY/ton, down 1.74% month-on-month and down 7.87% year-on-year [5][6]. Production Side - The tire production in December 2024 reached 105.56 million units, a year-on-year increase of 21.51% and a month-on-month increase of 2.04%. However, January 2025 saw a decline in production, with full steel tire production down 30.19% month-on-month and 24.86% year-on-year [23]. - The average operating rates for semi-steel tires and full-steel tires in January 2025 were 65.88% and 46.28%, respectively, both showing declines compared to the previous month and year [26]. Demand Side - Domestic demand experienced a seasonal decline due to holiday factors, but is expected to improve post-holiday as production resumes [40]. - Overseas demand remains strong, particularly in the replacement market in Europe and North America, with significant replenishment needs anticipated [56]. Industry News - Notable developments include the IPO approval for Zhongce Rubber, which aims to raise 4.85 billion CNY for various projects, and a 7.3% increase in rubber tire imports in the U.S. in 2024 [50][51]. - Goodyear reported a turnaround in 2024, achieving a net income of 70 million USD, indicating improved profitability [51].