生猪养殖行业月度跟踪：农林牧渔行业：1月供需两旺均价回调，能繁存栏量震荡

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [2] Core Insights - In January, the average price of live pigs decreased, while the price of piglets remained strong. The average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork in January 2025 were 33.97 CNY/kg, 16.61 CNY/kg, and 27.89 CNY/kg, with month-on-month changes of 2.41%, -0.21%, and -0.61% respectively [3][14] - The supply side showed increased enthusiasm for slaughtering in January, but the overall demand remained weak. The market is expected to continue facing an oversupply situation, leading to weak price performance for live pigs [3][16] - The breeding stock of sows showed fluctuations, with a December count of 40.78 million, a slight decrease of 0.05% month-on-month. The piglet market became active in January, with prices rising from below 400 CNY to above 500 CNY [4][19] - The report predicts that leading breeding companies will maintain profitability in 2025, with a focus on cost advantages and potential valuation recovery as consumption policies are implemented [4][22] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - January saw a rebound in slaughtering rates, with a 2.83 percentage point increase to 39.16% [3][16] - The overall supply of live pigs was sufficient, but the demand remained weak, leading to a continued oversupply situation [3][16] Price Trends - The average sales prices for major companies in January showed slight declines, with prices for Wens Foodstuffs, Zhengbang Technology, and New Hope at 15.77 CNY/kg, 15.34 CNY/kg, and 15.41 CNY/kg respectively [12][26] - The average weight of slaughtered pigs decreased, indicating a trend towards lighter weights in the market [28][32] Performance Forecast - The report anticipates significant profit growth for leading companies in 2024, with expected net profits for Muyuan Foods at 170-180 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 522.21% [35][36] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong performance and cost advantages, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and Tian Kang Biological [4][22]