平安证券：晨会纪要-20250219

Group 1: Real Estate Market Insights - The report indicates that despite facing short-term high inventory, long-term urbanization slowdown, and declining birth rates, the real estate market still has potential for rebound after adjustments, with significant regional and city differentiation [1][10] - The national commodity housing volume and price have significantly declined since 2021, suggesting that the short-term market adjustment may be nearing its end, with opportunities remaining in core cities and quality products [1][10] - The report highlights that during the current adjustment, real estate companies are accelerating their cleanup processes, and high-quality firms with lighter historical burdens and land acquisition capabilities may welcome a new round of development opportunities [1][10] Group 2: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The historical review of the Northeast real estate market shows that from 1998 to 2012, the region experienced a golden period with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.3% in sales area and 29.5% in sales revenue, but faced a severe downturn from 2013 to 2015 due to economic slowdown and high inventory [7][8] - The report compares the current national market situation to the previous Northeast adjustment, noting that while both face high inventory and demographic challenges, the current macroeconomic resilience and stronger policy support differ significantly [8][9] - The outlook for the national real estate market suggests that "core areas and good properties" may stabilize first, with a need for further reduction in actual mortgage rates to enhance purchasing willingness [9][10] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the real estate sector, suggesting that investors focus on companies with lighter historical burdens and optimized inventory structures, such as China Overseas Development and China Resources Land [1][10] - It also recommends attention to companies undergoing valuation recovery, such as Vanke A and Jin Di Group, as well as leading firms in sub-sectors like brokerage and property management [1][10] - The report emphasizes that the investment value of the real estate sector is becoming more apparent, especially as the market begins to stabilize [3][10]