航空运输月度专题：1月油汇向好、国内线运力同比微增，客座率高位维稳

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aviation transportation industry is "Positive" [2][6] Core Insights - The industry passenger load factor has recovered to 2019 levels, with January ticket prices showing a slight year-on-year increase [3][8] - The supply-demand dynamics indicate that the passenger load factor for the entire year of 2024 has returned to 2019 levels, with significant growth in both capacity and revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) [8][14] - The average one-way ticket price in January 2025 was 902 RMB, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 29.6% and a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [3][17] - The average price of aviation kerosene in January-February 2025 was 5910 RMB/ton, down 10.1% compared to the same period in 2024 [21][22] Summary by Sections Industry Supply and Demand - In December 2024, the industry ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) and RPK increased by 8.1% and 9.7% respectively compared to December 2019, with a passenger load factor of 82.0%, exceeding the same period in 2019 by 1.2 percentage points [8][14] - Cumulatively for 2024, the ASK and RPK increased by 10.2% and 10.3% respectively compared to 2019, with an average load factor of 83.3% [8][14] Ticket Pricing - January 2025 saw a slight increase in ticket prices, with domestic ticket prices averaging 865 RMB (up 2.9% year-on-year) and international ticket prices averaging 1812 RMB (up 6.5% year-on-year) [3][17] Fuel Prices and Exchange Rates - The average price of aviation kerosene in January-February 2025 was 5910 RMB/ton, which is 10.1% lower than the same period in 2024 and 20.6% higher than the average price in 2019 [21][22] - The exchange rate remained stable, with the USD to RMB rate at 7.1697 as of February 18, 2025, a decrease of 0.26% from the end of 2024 [21][22] Airline Operations - In January 2025, domestic airline capacity saw a slight year-on-year increase, with passenger load factors remaining high [4][26] - Major airlines introduced new aircraft, with China Eastern Airlines leading with six new aircraft, while Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines did not introduce any new aircraft [4][41] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the recovery of air travel, recommending a focus on major airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines due to expected performance elasticity with rising ticket prices and stable fuel costs [5][45]