百度：稳健的云收入增长亮点-20250219

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Baidu with a target price of USD 149.20, an increase of 3% from the previous target price of USD 144.60 [1][5]. Core Insights - Baidu's core business revenue for Q4 2024 was RMB 27.7 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 3.5%. The annual core business revenue totaled RMB 104.7 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.3% [1][2]. - Cloud service revenue grew by 26% year-on-year, driven by strong AI-related GPU cloud revenue and cross-selling to CPU cloud and other cloud services. This growth trend is expected to continue into 2025 [1][2]. - The forecast for 2025 core search advertising revenue decline has been adjusted from 1.3% to 0.7%, indicating a smaller-than-expected impact from business adjustments [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Baidu's online advertising revenue was RMB 17.9 billion, a decline of 6.5% year-on-year but still above expectations. Approximately 22% of Baidu's search results were generated by generative AI [3][4]. - The non-GAAP operating profit margin for Q4 2024 was 16.8%, down 5.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased AI-related investments and one-time losses of RMB 1 billion [4][11]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The report projects Baidu's total revenue for FY 2025 to be RMB 138.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3%. The adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 26.99 billion, showing no growth compared to FY 2024 [9][17]. - The cloud revenue growth forecast for 2025 has been revised from 13% to 26%, reflecting strong growth momentum [2][12]. Valuation - The SOTP valuation for Baidu is set at USD 149.2 per ADS, with contributions from core business, Apollo, and cloud services being significant components of this valuation [14][15]. - The core business is valued at USD 51.7 billion based on a non-GAAP P/E ratio of 5.0x for 2025, while the cloud segment is valued at USD 37.6 billion based on a 3.4x PS ratio for 2025 [14][15].