金属行业周报：国内下游复苏向好，美国拟实施对等关税

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Neutral" while the non-ferrous metals industry is rated as "Positive" [4][6]. Core Views - The recovery of downstream demand in the domestic market is expected to support steel prices in the short term, while macroeconomic news and events should be monitored [2][4]. - Copper prices are expected to be supported by tight copper ore supply, although uncertainties regarding tariffs and trade wars may exert pressure on prices [2][4]. - The aluminum market is facing downward pressure on alumina prices, but domestic demand recovery is crucial [3][4]. - Gold prices may continue to rise due to safe-haven demand, despite uncertainties surrounding tariff implementations [3][4]. - Lithium prices are expected to remain weak due to ongoing inventory accumulation and unfavorable profit margins for material suppliers [3][4]. Industry Data Summary Steel - The steel industry has seen an increase in both supply and demand, with overall inventory rising. The procurement volume of Shanghai's terminal rebar was 0.42 million tons on February 14 [18][20]. - The production of five major steel varieties reached 8.1462 million tons, a 0.74% increase from February 7, and a 1.31% increase year-on-year [20][24]. - As of February 14, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 85.60%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points from February 7 [24][26]. - Total steel inventory was 18.2076 million tons, an 8.77% increase from February 7, but a year-on-year decrease of 11.86% [26][27]. Copper - Domestic macro sentiment has improved, providing some support for copper prices, while the processing fees for copper concentrate have been declining [34][35]. - On February 14, the LME copper spot price was $9,800 per ton, a 5.64$2,700 per ton, a 0.85% increase from February 7 [44][45]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have risen due to increased safe-haven demand, with COMEX gold closing at $2,893.70 per ounce on February 14, a 0.26$32.66 per ounce, a 1.46% rise [50][51]. Lithium and Other Metals - Lithium prices are expected to remain weak due to inventory accumulation, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 76,400 yuan per ton on February 14, a 1.42% decrease [52][53]. - Cobalt and nickel prices have remained stable, with cobalt priced at 166,000 yuan per ton [55][56]. Rare Earths and Minor Metals - Light rare earth prices have increased, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide priced at 434,000 yuan per ton, a 2.12% increase [59][60].