中国石油：煤岩气成为天然气增产新动能-20250219

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Petroleum (601857.SH) is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - Coalbed methane (coal rock gas) has emerged as a new driving force for natural gas production, with a significant year-on-year production increase of 90.4% to 1.96 billion cubic meters [3][28] - The total annual production reached 4.12 billion cubic meters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.96% [28] - The development of coal rock gas is characterized by high pressure, high temperature, high gas content, high saturation, and high free gas content, distinguishing it from traditional coalbed methane [5][12] - The geological resource potential for coal rock gas is substantial, with estimates indicating over 40.71 trillion cubic meters of resources at depths greater than 2000 meters, significantly exceeding the resources of shallower coalbed methane [6][18] Summary by Sections Production and Development - China Petroleum's coal rock gas production has shown remarkable growth, with a focus on deep coal seams, particularly the 8 seam at depths of 2000 to 2520 meters [25][27] - The company has successfully identified and developed significant reserves, with proven geological reserves of 112.162 billion cubic meters in the Dajie block [27] - The company is accelerating the evaluation of reserves in other well areas, indicating potential for substantial resource increases [27] Market Dynamics - The domestic natural gas market is experiencing continuous reform, with a projected consumption increase to 4,580 billion cubic meters by 2025, maintaining a growth rate of around 8% [30] - The market for natural gas is expected to remain robust, driven by economic recovery and increasing demand [30] Technological Advancements - The development of coal rock gas has benefited from advancements in drilling and fracturing technologies, enabling efficient extraction from deeper reservoirs [20][21] - The shift from conventional to large-scale volume fracturing techniques has improved production rates and reduced costs [20][21] Strategic Importance - The strategic significance of coal rock gas development is underscored by its potential to enhance domestic natural gas production and self-sufficiency, especially as traditional coalbed methane growth slows [16][29]