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深度分析入市资金量,潜在资金量,行情所处位置:朝阳初露,未及炎阳
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-02-19 08:10

Group 1: Market Analysis - The total amount of new funds entering the market is approximately $2,330.53 billion, driven by stablecoins ($859.4 billion), fiat ($200.5 billion), and ETFs ($1,273.65 billion) [6][26]. - The current cryptocurrency market capitalization has increased by $2.44 trillion, with Bitcoin's market value rising by $1.6 trillion, accounting for 65.6% of the total increase [7][29]. - The current total audience for cryptocurrencies is 653 million, which is 3.2 times the peak trading volume in May 2021, but the trading volume in November 2024 is only $2.71 billion, 65.1% of the peak [8][33]. Group 2: Future Potential - The global equity market has a total market capitalization of $108.4 trillion, while the cryptocurrency market is at $3.4 trillion, representing only 3.13% of the equity market [10][52]. - If 1% to 2% of the global equity and debt markets were allocated to Bitcoin, potential new funds could reach $2.74 to $5.49 trillion, significantly exceeding the current inflow [11][56]. - The MVRV Z-Score is currently at 2.63, indicating that the market is not in a bubble compared to the previous peak of 7.53 [8][41]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The trading volume of centralized exchanges (CEX) has not yet reached previous peak levels, with the highest ratio to Nasdaq trading volume being 109.5% as of January 2025 [9][45]. - The average monthly trading amount per crypto user is $0.45 million, significantly lower than the peak of $2.2 million in 2021, indicating room for growth [8][46]. - The supply of Bitcoin is tightening, with 19.82 million BTC already mined, leaving only 117,481 BTC to be mined until 2140 [29][30].