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深度分析入市资金量,潜在资金量,行情所处位置:朝阳初露,未及炎阳
中泰证券·2025-02-19 08:10

Group 1: Market Analysis - The total amount of new funds entering the market is approximately 2,330.53billion,drivenbystablecoins(2,330.53 billion, driven by stablecoins (859.4 billion), fiat (200.5billion),andETFs(200.5 billion), and ETFs (1,273.65 billion) [6][26]. - The current cryptocurrency market capitalization has increased by 2.44trillion,withBitcoinsmarketvaluerisingby2.44 trillion, with Bitcoin's market value rising by 1.6 trillion, accounting for 65.6% of the total increase [7][29]. - The current total audience for cryptocurrencies is 653 million, which is 3.2 times the peak trading volume in May 2021, but the trading volume in November 2024 is only 2.71billion,65.12.71 billion, 65.1% of the peak [8][33]. Group 2: Future Potential - The global equity market has a total market capitalization of 108.4 trillion, while the cryptocurrency market is at 3.4trillion,representingonly3.133.4 trillion, representing only 3.13% of the equity market [10][52]. - If 1% to 2% of the global equity and debt markets were allocated to Bitcoin, potential new funds could reach 2.74 to 5.49trillion,significantlyexceedingthecurrentinflow[11][56].TheMVRVZScoreiscurrentlyat2.63,indicatingthatthemarketisnotinabubblecomparedtothepreviouspeakof7.53[8][41].Group3:MarketDynamicsThetradingvolumeofcentralizedexchanges(CEX)hasnotyetreachedpreviouspeaklevels,withthehighestratiotoNasdaqtradingvolumebeing109.55.49 trillion, significantly exceeding the current inflow [11][56]. - The MVRV Z-Score is currently at 2.63, indicating that the market is not in a bubble compared to the previous peak of 7.53 [8][41]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The trading volume of centralized exchanges (CEX) has not yet reached previous peak levels, with the highest ratio to Nasdaq trading volume being 109.5% as of January 2025 [9][45]. - The average monthly trading amount per crypto user is 0.45 million, significantly lower than the peak of $2.2 million in 2021, indicating room for growth [8][46]. - The supply of Bitcoin is tightening, with 19.82 million BTC already mined, leaving only 117,481 BTC to be mined until 2140 [29][30].