医药：2025年医药零售市场：增长分化与转型机遇并存

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the online pharmacy sector, suggesting a "buy" rating for JD Health, with a target price of HK$42.61 [4]. Core Insights - The overall growth rate of China's retail pharmaceutical market is expected to remain low at 5-6% in 2025, with a sales scale reaching approximately 574 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [1][4]. - Online pharmacies are experiencing significant growth, with sales reaching 75.8 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, while traditional brick-and-mortar pharmacies face challenges with a closure rate of 5.7% [2][4]. - The report highlights the potential of online pharmacies, driven by changing consumer habits, policy support for prescription drug sales online, and the gradual implementation of online medical insurance payments [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The retail pharmaceutical market in China is projected to grow at a rate of 5-6% in 2025, with the market size reaching 574 billion yuan in 2024 [1][4]. - The growth of the retail market is influenced by demographic changes, macroeconomic conditions, and healthcare reforms [1]. Channel Performance - In 2024, online pharmacies accounted for 13.2% of the market share, up from 12% in 2023, while traditional pharmacies saw a mere 2.3% growth in sales [2][4]. - The number of traditional pharmacies closing has accelerated, with 39,000 closures in 2024, indicating increased competition and declining profit margins [2]. Future Outlook - The report expresses optimism about the future of online pharmacies, anticipating continued growth due to supportive policies and increasing penetration of online medical insurance [3][4]. - The demand for flu medications in December 2024 led to a peak in sales, although overall sales for the year showed a slight decline compared to 2023 [3].