BYD(01211) 第一上海证券·2025-02-19 11:18Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 486.4, indicating a potential upside of 32.3% from the current price of HKD 365.6 [4][6]. Core Insights - The launch of the "Tian Shen Zhi Yan" advanced driving system aims to democratize intelligent driving technology, making it accessible to a broader consumer base [2]. - The company is projected to achieve record sales of 4.25 million new energy passenger vehicles in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 41% [3]. - The company’s market share in the new energy vehicle sector is expected to stabilize at 35% in 2025, despite increased competition from hybrid models [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 602.3 billion in 2023 to RMB 1,216.6 billion by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 34.2% [5][7]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 30.0 billion in 2023 to RMB 65.4 billion in 2026, with a net profit margin projected to improve gradually [5][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to rise from HKD 10.3 in 2023 to HKD 22.5 in 2026, indicating strong profitability growth [5][7]. Sales and Market Position - The company’s high-end brands, including Tengshi and Fangchengbao, are expected to contribute significantly to overall sales, with a projected total of 188,000 units sold in 2024 [3]. - The overall new energy vehicle market in China is expected to reach 10.9 million units in 2024, with the company maintaining a leading position despite a slight decline in market share [3]. Strategic Developments - The introduction of the "Tian Shen Zhi Yan" system across various models is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge and drive industry-wide adoption of intelligent driving technologies [4]. - The company plans to launch a new generation of pure electric platforms and related technologies in 2025, which is anticipated to further boost profitability and market presence [4].