2025航空系列深度之一：新周期起点，再论航空供需差

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the aviation industry [3] Core Insights - The aviation industry is experiencing a structural change in demand, with a significant recovery in passenger traffic expected to surpass 2019 levels by 2024. However, the supply-demand mismatch is leading to increased volatility in performance [4][9] - The year 2025 is projected to be a turning point for the supply-demand gap, with demand growth expected to exceed supply growth for the first time since 2020, leading to improved profitability in the industry [4][56] Summary by Sections 1. Demand Structure Changes - The aviation industry has recovered to 2019 passenger traffic levels by 2024 after a severe downturn from 2020 to 2022. The demand structure has changed significantly, with seasonal effects becoming more pronounced [4][9] - Monthly passenger traffic in 2024 is expected to peak in August with a year-on-year increase of 19.1% and drop to a low of 5.3% in April [4] 2. Supply Constraints - Aircraft deliveries from Boeing and Airbus in 2024 are projected to be 348 and 766 units, respectively, which are only 43% and 89% of their historical peaks [4][35] - The aging domestic fleet and changes in fleet management strategies add uncertainty to future supply expansion [4][35] 3. Supply-Demand Gap Reversal - In 2025, the supply-demand gap is expected to turn positive for the first time since 2020, with demand growth projected to exceed supply growth by 0.4% [4][56] - The report anticipates that the supply-demand gap will expand to 4-5% from 2026 to 2029, leading to improved industry profitability [4][81] 4. Investment Analysis - The aviation industry has transitioned from a high-growth phase (pre-2019) to a recovery phase (2023-2024) and is expected to enter a new cycle driven by supply dynamics starting in 2025 [4][56] - Historical analysis shows a strong correlation between profit margins and the supply-demand growth differential, indicating a high degree of certainty in the current cycle [4][66] 5. International Route Dynamics - The recovery of international routes has been uneven, with North America and East Asia showing lower recovery rates compared to other regions [19] - The number of foreign airlines operating in China has decreased, with 29 foreign carriers exiting the market since 2019 [20] 6. Fleet Management Challenges - The average age of the fleet has increased, leading to a potential rise in retirement rates, which could further constrain supply [50][52] - The report highlights that the operational challenges posed by new engine technologies may impact the delivery of new aircraft [48]