嘉里建设：稳定分红为基，业务多元驱动-20250220

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for Kerry Properties [5][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the launch of the "Jinling Huating" project in Shanghai, which is anticipated to contribute significant cash flow starting in 2025 [10]. - The company's investment properties and hotels are projected to increase in gross floor area (GFA) by approximately 59% by the end of 2030 compared to H1 2024, enhancing revenue growth potential [10]. - The company emphasizes stable shareholder returns, maintaining a consistent dividend per share (DPS) of HK$1.35 from 2017 to 2023, with a stable interim DPS of HK$0.40 in H1 2024 [10]. - The gearing ratio is expected to decline in 2025 as cash flow from property sales improves, alleviating financial pressure [10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Kerry Properties was established in 1978 and primarily engages in real estate development and property leasing, with significant investments in mainland China since the late 1990s [13][14]. Development Business - The company's sales are primarily driven by high-end residential projects, with a notable recovery in contract sales in Hong Kong, achieving HK$7 billion in H1 2024, a 271$2.6 billion in H1 2024, with a slight year-on-year decline of 2.8% [48]. - The investment properties are strategically located in core cities, with a focus on office and retail spaces, providing stable cash flow [53][57]. Financial Analysis - For the fiscal year 2023, the company reported total revenue of HK$13.09 billion, a decrease of 10.3$2.99 billion, reflecting an 18.7% increase compared to 2023 [4][9]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts a stable DPS of HK$1.35 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 7.4, 6.8, and 5.7, respectively [10].