Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing real estate market expectations and highlights the sector's significant role in the national economy and as a source of household wealth [3][50] - The report suggests that the real estate market's healthy development is crucial for overall economic stability and calls for decisive policy measures rather than piecemeal approaches [50] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.6%, and the real estate sector (Shenwan) declined by 0.7% during the week [5][8] - Notable stock performances included Chengjian Development (+13.2%) and Sanzhong Impression (+10.7%), while Hualian Holdings (-15.5%) and Yatong Shares (-6.8%) saw significant declines [5][8] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - In the week of December 27 to January 2, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 2.56 million square meters, a 2.0% decrease from the previous week [16] - For December, new housing transactions reached 10.63 million square meters, a 35.7% increase month-on-month but a 40.5% decrease year-on-year [21] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 1.64 million square meters, a 21.5% decrease from the previous week [34] - For December, second-hand housing transactions amounted to 9.22 million square meters, an 11.1% increase month-on-month but a 27.9% decrease year-on-year [37] Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development aims for significant progress in housing quality improvement by 2030, focusing on standards, design, materials, and construction [50] - New tax policies were introduced, reducing the value-added tax rate for second-hand housing transactions to 3% for properties held for less than two years, while properties held for two years or more are exempt from VAT [50] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced the launch of a pilot program for commercial real estate investment trusts (REITs) to promote high-quality market development [50] Company Announcements - China Resources Land secured a sustainable development-linked loan of 2 billion yuan with a term of 36 months [54] - Huafa Group elected Guo Lingyong as the chairman of its board and Liu Yingzhe as vice chairman [54]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, Kerry Properties, controlled by Malaysian billionaire Kuok Khoon Hong, achieved a remarkable sales performance in the Chinese real estate market, with a year-on-year increase of 1646.5%, reaching sales of 22.787 billion yuan, making it the fastest-growing company among the top 100 real estate firms in China [2][4]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Kerry Properties' explosive growth in sales is primarily attributed to its luxury residential project, Jinling Huating, located in Shanghai, which significantly contributed to its overall sales figures [3][4]. - The company secured land use rights for the Jinling Road project in Shanghai for a total price of 8.783 billion yuan, with cumulative land acquisition costs reaching 22.1 billion yuan for the project [3]. - In 2025, the first three phases of Jinling Huating generated over 22 billion yuan in sales, with the first phase alone achieving a record sales amount of 9.234 billion yuan [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Despite the impressive sales growth, Kerry Properties faced a decline in profitability, with a 30% drop in basic profit and a 22% decrease in profit attributable to shareholders in the first half of 2025 [8][9]. - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 9.954 billion yuan, reflecting a 65% increase compared to the previous year, but the gross profit margin fell from 45% to 27% [8][9]. - The decline in profitability is attributed to reduced profit margins from development properties, decreased rental income, increased taxes, and rising costs [8]. Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - Kerry Properties has a limited presence in other cities, with slow sales performance in second and third-tier cities, indicating a reliance on the booming luxury market in Shanghai [6][9]. - The company has adopted a conservative expansion strategy, focusing on high-end products and maintaining a steady approach to land acquisition [8]. - The chairman, Kuok Khoon Hong, expressed optimism about the long-term economic outlook for Hong Kong and mainland China, despite short-term challenges in the real estate market [9].

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, Kerry Properties, owned by Malaysian billionaire Kuok Khoon Hong, achieved a remarkable sales performance in the Chinese real estate market, with a sales increase of 1646.5% year-on-year, primarily driven by the success of its luxury residential project, Jinling Huating, in Shanghai [1][4]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Kerry Properties recorded a sales revenue of 22.787 billion yuan in mainland China for 2025, with approximately 22 billion yuan attributed to the Jinling Huating project [4]. - The sales figures for Jinling Huating include over 9.234 billion yuan from the first phase, 9.8 billion yuan from the second phase, and an expected 3 billion yuan from the third phase [3][4]. - The sales performance of Jinling Huating significantly contributed to Kerry Properties becoming the top-performing company in terms of sales growth among the top 100 real estate firms in China [1][4]. Group 2: Project Details - The Jinling Huating project, located in the Huangpu district of Shanghai, involved a total land acquisition cost of 22.1 billion yuan for multiple plots, with a total development area of 655,000 square meters [3][5]. - The project is characterized by high-end residential offerings, with average prices reaching 189,000 yuan per square meter for the first phase and 205,000 yuan per square meter for the second phase [3][4]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Despite the surge in sales, Kerry Properties faced a decline in profitability, with a 30% drop in basic profit and a 22% decrease in net profit for the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [8]. - The company's gross profit margin fell from 45% in 2024 to 27% in 2025, attributed to rising costs and reduced rental income [8]. - The financial results indicate a situation of "increased revenue without increased profit," highlighting challenges in other city projects outside Shanghai [8][9]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The company remains optimistic about the long-term economic prospects in Hong Kong and mainland China, despite facing significant short-term challenges in the real estate market [9]. - Kerry Properties is focusing on maintaining stability and resilience amid the ongoing fluctuations in the housing market and declining commercial property rental prices [9].

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: Kerry Properties Limited 嘉里建設有限公司（於百慕達註冊成立之有限公司） 呈交日期: 2026年1月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00683 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | HKD | | 1 HKD | | 10,000,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | HKD | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | HKD | | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, highlighting opportunities in shopping center value reassessment and new housing tracks [4][22][39] Core Insights - The investment side of the real estate sector continues to weaken, with cumulative investment from January to November 2025 down by 15.9% year-on-year, and a significant drop of 30.3% in November alone [4][21] - The sales side is also under pressure, with cumulative sales area down by 7.8% year-on-year and a notable decline of 25.1% in November [22][35] - Funding sources are tightening, with total funding for real estate development down by 11.9% year-on-year, and a sharp decline of 32.5% in November [40] Investment Side Summary - Cumulative real estate development investment from January to November 2025 reached 785.91 billion yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year, with November's single-month investment declining by 30.3% [5][21] - New construction starts fell by 20.5% year-on-year, with a 27.6% drop in November [19][21] - The report forecasts continued weakness in investment, with predictions for 2025-2026 showing construction starts down by 18.0% and total investment down by 14.2% [4][21] Sales Side Summary - Cumulative sales area for real estate from January to November 2025 was 790 million square meters, down 7.8% year-on-year, with November's sales area declining by 17.3% [22][35] - Cumulative sales revenue reached 7.5 trillion yuan, down 11.1% year-on-year, with a 25.1% drop in November [22][35] - The average selling price of properties decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, with a notable decline of 9.5% in November [34][35] Funding Side Summary - Total funding sources for real estate development amounted to 850 billion yuan, down 11.9% year-on-year, with November showing a 32.5% decline [40] - Domestic loans decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, with a 10.4% drop in November [40] - Self-raised funds fell by 11.9% year-on-year, with a significant 30.7% decline in November [40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, particularly focusing on the shopping center industry [4][5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the consumption industry and shopping center sector in China still have significant growth potential, driven by an expected increase in total consumption and a structural recovery [4][5]. - Leading commercial companies have achieved stable same-store growth and expansion through operational alpha, which may lead to a revaluation of IP (Intellectual Property) values [4][5]. - The report draws comparisons with the U.S. commercial real estate market, highlighting that during five interest rate cut cycles, commercial real estate indices consistently yielded positive returns, significantly outperforming other asset classes [4][5]. Summary by Sections Macro Perspective - The domestic consumption sector remains under pressure, with retail sales growth gradually recovering to +4.3% as of October 2025, while CPI remains low at +0.2% [14][21]. - Compared to the U.S. and Japan during their real estate crises, China's consumption resilience is still relatively strong [14][21]. - Long-term growth potential exists in the consumption sector, particularly in shopping centers, as GDP per capita and retail sales per capita are expected to rise [28][31]. Mid-level Perspective - As of Q3 2025, the total area of centralized commercial space in China reached 661 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth of +4.4% [49]. - The number of new openings has decreased, but the proportion of reopened projects after adjustments has increased, indicating a shift in strategy [53]. - The report notes that 57% of existing projects have been open for over five years, highlighting the importance of effective asset management [53]. Micro Perspective - Leading companies in the sector exhibit significant operational efficiency, with top firms showing a concentration of 19% in opening area as of 2024 [4][5]. - Key companies are expected to see a revaluation of their IP, with potential increases of 39% for China Resources Land and 33% for New World Development [4][5]. - The report indicates that the average operating profit margin for IP is between 55% and 84%, with dividend yields for major companies exceeding 5% [4][5]. U.S. Market Review - The report highlights that during five interest rate cut cycles, the NCREIF commercial real estate price index achieved an average return of 31%, second only to gold [4][5]. - The long-term same-store NOI (Net Operating Income) growth in the U.S. has been stable, correlating positively with GDP growth [4][5]. Catalysts for Growth - The report suggests that the high barriers to entry in commercial operations will enhance the competitive advantage of leading firms, especially as the "residential development supports commercial" model weakens [4][5]. - The introduction of C-REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) is expected to further support the revaluation of commercial assets [4][5].

FF301 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00683 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | HKD | | 1 HKD | | 10,000,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | HKD | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | HKD | | 1 HKD | | 10,000,000,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： HKD 10,000,000,000 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年11月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: Kerry P ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook despite current challenges [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the competitive landscape of Hong Kong commercial real estate, emphasizing that Hong Kong developers dominate the high-end market in mainland China, with significant advantages in sales per square meter compared to domestic developers [2][17]. - It notes that the real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with policies expected to support demand and mitigate risks, particularly in first-tier cities [3]. - The report suggests that the financial health of Hong Kong developers is generally robust, with a focus on high-end commercial properties, which positions them well to benefit from increased consumer spending in mainland China [6][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Hong Kong Commercial Real Estate Landscape - Hong Kong developers like Hang Lung, Swire, and Sun Hung Kai dominate the high-end commercial sector, capturing a significant market share in major cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou [2][17]. - The average sales per square meter for Hong Kong high-end projects (8.6 billion/10,000 sqm) significantly outperforms domestic counterparts (5.6 billion/10,000 sqm) [20]. 2. Market Performance - The report indicates that both A-shares and Hong Kong real estate stocks underperformed the broader market, with A-shares down 0.72% and Hong Kong real estate down 0.95% [3]. - The issuance of real estate credit bonds totaled 17.84 billion, with a net financing amount of 11.50 billion, reflecting ongoing challenges in the sector [4]. 3. REITs Market - The REITs index showed a slight decline of 0.11%, with the property-type REITs index at 118.22 points and the franchise-type REITs index at 118.85 points [4]. - The report notes that REITs have outperformed the CSI 300 index over the past month by 2.92 percentage points [4]. 4. Housing Market Trends - New and second-hand housing transaction volumes have seen significant year-on-year declines, with new housing down 34.37% and second-hand housing down 19.46% [6]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in the second-hand housing market, while new housing metrics are expected to stabilize [6]. 5. Land Market Dynamics - The report highlights a substantial increase in land supply and transaction volumes across major cities, with a 144.35% increase in supply and a 40.81% increase in transactions [5]. - The premium rate for land transactions has shown a slight increase, indicating a competitive bidding environment [5]. 6. Policy Outlook - The report outlines expectations for future policies aimed at stabilizing the housing market, including potential adjustments to purchase restrictions in first-tier cities and measures to alleviate inventory pressures [3].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that a new cycle is quietly brewing amidst global monetary and fiscal easing, with smart capital positioning itself to seize opportunities in this new phase [1][3] - The Hong Kong luxury property market is showing signs of rebound and recovery, indicating strong signals from smart money that is strategically investing [2][6] - The current year is identified as the first year of "dual easing" in China, with key financial indicators like M1 gradually recovering, leading to a resurgence in property transactions in major cities [6][11] Group 2 - Data shows that in the first ten months, Shanghai accounted for 60% of luxury home transactions in China, highlighting its dominance in the high-end residential market [25] - The article notes that the core assets in major cities, particularly in Shanghai, are becoming increasingly scarce, which is driving smart capital to invest in these high-value properties [10][34] - The investment logic of high-net-worth individuals is based on the belief that core urban properties are valuable and worth holding, as they tend to appreciate over time [9][14] Group 3 - Historical data indicates that core urban properties have consistently outperformed overall market trends, with significant price increases observed in cities like London, Paris, and New York over the past decades [15][20] - The article highlights that despite economic fluctuations, core assets in major cities remain attractive to investors due to their inherent scarcity and high value [12][24] - The focus on prime locations is reiterated, with the article stating that only properties with unique, non-replicable attributes can withstand economic cycles and continue to appreciate [14][23] Group 4 - The article discusses the specific appeal of the Xuhui area in Shanghai, which is seen as a prime investment location due to its commercial vibrancy and concentration of high-net-worth individuals [26][29] - It mentions that the luxury market in Shanghai is characterized by intense competition, with developers investing significantly in product quality to attract discerning buyers [34][31] - The article concludes that smart capital is making informed decisions based on historical trends and current market conditions, positioning itself for future gains [35][36]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial struggles of Hong Kong entertainment company Emperor Group, which is facing a debt crisis of HKD 16.6 billion, prompting its artists to engage in unusual promotional activities to help repay debts [1][2]. Group 1: Debt Crisis and Market Trends - Emperor Group's debt crisis is a reflection of broader challenges faced by Hong Kong real estate companies, which have been reducing their operations in mainland China [1][2]. - The article highlights a significant trend of Hong Kong real estate firms, such as Hongkong Land, downsizing their workforce and operations in mainland China, marking a shift from their previously robust presence [1][2]. Group 2: Historical Performance of Hong Kong Real Estate Firms - Hong Kong real estate companies were once known for their aggressive land acquisitions, setting records for land prices, such as Hongkong Land's acquisition of a site in Shanghai for approximately HKD 31.05 billion in 2020 [4]. - The sales performance of projects developed by Hong Kong firms has been strong, with examples like New World Development's Guangzhou project achieving a record average price of CNY 21,800 per square meter [5][6]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments and Future Directions - Many Hong Kong real estate firms are now actively adjusting their strategies, with some opting for joint developments to leverage local expertise and resources [20]. - The shift towards a "light asset" model is emerging as a new opportunity for Hong Kong firms, allowing them to maximize their brand and operational capabilities while minimizing capital investment [23][24]. - Companies like Swire Properties and New World Development are exploring light asset collaborations to enhance their operational efficiency and financial stability [24][27]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The article notes that the competitive landscape in the mainland real estate market has intensified, prompting Hong Kong firms to adapt by improving their development speed and project management [16][19]. - The ongoing adjustments by Hong Kong real estate firms reflect a broader trend of market recalibration, where firms that embrace change are finding new opportunities amidst challenges [28].