我们正处于全球货币与财政双宽松周期，聪明资金已经悄悄布局把握新周期的机遇。 前 9 个月内地人在港买房总额近 1000 亿港元，其中香港豪宅新买家超 8 成为内地人。阿里巴巴前 CEO 张勇更是豪掷 5354 万港元买入一套四房豪 宅。 楼市依然是大部分人关心的核心资产，乃至投资消费和经济信心的先行指标。香港豪宅市场的反弹和复苏，正是聪明的 "大钱"提前布局的强烈信号。 一轮新的周期正在人群迷惘之际悄悄酝酿。 全球宽松周期信号显现 数年后回过头看， 2025 年是新一轮宽松周期的开始，但很多人都还没意识到这一点。 根据美国银行的统计显示，过去两年全球央行的降息次数已超过了 2007-09 年全球金融危机期间。尽管当前中性利率仍然在较高的位置，但 2026 年仍 有较强降息空间和预期。机构预计美联储在未来 12-18 个月降息空间还有 100BP ，中性利率有望回归到 3%-3.25% 昨夜的美联储会议纪要显示， 12 月 1 日起美联储将结束量化紧缩，停止对市场抛售资产，甚至在 2026 年可能重启量化宽松，来对冲美国如今的就业下 滑压力。 QE 对全球资产来说都是一件好消息，这意味着流动性宽松的利好将助推资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial struggles of Hong Kong entertainment company Emperor Group, which is facing a debt crisis of HKD 16.6 billion, prompting its artists to engage in unusual promotional activities to help repay debts [1][2]. Group 1: Debt Crisis and Market Trends - Emperor Group's debt crisis is a reflection of broader challenges faced by Hong Kong real estate companies, which have been reducing their operations in mainland China [1][2]. - The article highlights a significant trend of Hong Kong real estate firms, such as Hongkong Land, downsizing their workforce and operations in mainland China, marking a shift from their previously robust presence [1][2]. Group 2: Historical Performance of Hong Kong Real Estate Firms - Hong Kong real estate companies were once known for their aggressive land acquisitions, setting records for land prices, such as Hongkong Land's acquisition of a site in Shanghai for approximately HKD 31.05 billion in 2020 [4]. - The sales performance of projects developed by Hong Kong firms has been strong, with examples like New World Development's Guangzhou project achieving a record average price of CNY 21,800 per square meter [5][6]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments and Future Directions - Many Hong Kong real estate firms are now actively adjusting their strategies, with some opting for joint developments to leverage local expertise and resources [20]. - The shift towards a "light asset" model is emerging as a new opportunity for Hong Kong firms, allowing them to maximize their brand and operational capabilities while minimizing capital investment [23][24]. - Companies like Swire Properties and New World Development are exploring light asset collaborations to enhance their operational efficiency and financial stability [24][27]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The article notes that the competitive landscape in the mainland real estate market has intensified, prompting Hong Kong firms to adapt by improving their development speed and project management [16][19]. - The ongoing adjustments by Hong Kong real estate firms reflect a broader trend of market recalibration, where firms that embrace change are finding new opportunities amidst challenges [28].

Core Viewpoint - Kerry Properties (00683) has announced the renewal of a lease for its office spaces located in Kerry Centre, with a rental agreement set for two years starting from November 19, 2025, to November 18, 2027, at a monthly rent of approximately HKD 2.322 million [1] Group 1 - The lease renewal involves properties on the 3rd, 5th, 22nd, 25th, and 26th floors of Kerry Centre [1] - The company intends to continue using these properties for its corporate office in Hong Kong [1]

Core Viewpoint - Kerry Properties (00683) has announced the renewal of lease agreements for certain properties located in Kerry Centre, with a rental fee of approximately HKD 2.322 million per month, effective from November 19, 2025, to November 18, 2027 [1] Group 1 - The lease renewal involves properties on the 3rd, 5th, 22nd, 25th, and 26th floors of Kerry Centre [1] - The properties will continue to be used as the company's office in Hong Kong [1]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 關連交易 續訂嘉里中心租約 續訂租約 於二零二五年十一月十七日，本公司之全資附屬公司嘉里發展（作為租戶）已接納 Ubagan（作為業主）所作出之要約，就位於嘉里中心之該等物業續訂現有租約。租期 為兩年，由二零二五年十一月十九日起至二零二七年十一月十八日届滿（包括首尾兩 日）。 上市規則之涵義 Ubagan 由嘉里控股及本公司分別間接持有 60%及 40%權益，而嘉里控股為本公司之控 股股東。Ubagan 為嘉里控股之聯繫人，故屬本公司之關連人士。因此，根據上市規則 第十四A章，續約事項對本公司而言構成一項關連交易。 由於續約事項項下租金確認的使用權資產總值之一項或多項適用百分比率高於 0.1%但 所有適用百分比率皆低於 5%，故續約事項須遵守上市規則第十四A章項下之申報及公 告規定，惟可獲豁免遵守通函（包括獨立財務意見）及獨立股東批准之規定。 除租金外，本集團亦須向 Ubagan 支付可變付款額，對本公 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the stabilization of the residential balance sheet suggests a potential bottoming out in the real estate market, but the speed of improvement will determine the duration of this bottoming process [3][4] - The report highlights that since 2021, China's housing prices have cumulatively declined by 37%, which is longer than the average decline of 34% over 6.1 years in 42 countries, indicating that while the price drop is significant, the adjustment period in China is still relatively short [22][7] - The report identifies five major opportunities in the industry, including the stabilization of the residential asset-liability ratio, a decrease in the housing price-to-income ratio, improving rental yields, a bullish stock market potentially boosting wealth effects, and a deep clearing of supply-side issues [3][4] Group 2 - The industry outlook predicts a structural bottoming out, with opportunities arising for quality housing and commercial real estate, driven by policies focusing on demand recovery and high-quality development [3][4] - The report anticipates that the core cities will stabilize sooner due to healthier supply-demand relationships, with a forecast for sales volume and price declines to narrow in 2025-2026 [3][4] - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the real estate sector, recommending specific companies in the quality housing and commercial real estate segments, as well as undervalued firms and property management companies [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a cautious optimism despite current challenges [2][3]. Core Insights - The investment side of the real estate sector continues to weaken, with significant declines in new construction and completion rates. For the period from January to October 2025, total real estate investment decreased by 14.7% year-on-year, with new construction down by 19.8% and completions down by 16.9% [1][20]. - The sales side shows a broader decline in sales volume and price. From January to October 2025, the sales area decreased by 6.8% year-on-year, with a more pronounced drop of 18.8% in October alone. The sales amount also fell by 9.6% year-on-year, with a 24.3% decline in October [2][33]. - Funding sources for real estate development are tightening, with total funding down by 9.7% year-on-year. In October, funding sources saw a significant drop of 21.9% compared to the previous month [35]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests that the real estate sector is still in a bottoming phase, with core cities expected to stabilize sooner. Two major opportunities are highlighted: the potential shift of real estate companies towards manufacturing and the favorable conditions for quality commercial enterprises during a monetary easing cycle [2][3]. - Adjustments to the 2025 forecasts include a projected investment decline of 14.2% (previously 11.0%), new construction down by 18.0% (previously 15.1%), and completions down by 17.7% (previously 20.0%) [20][34].

Core Insights - The recent purchase of luxury properties by companies like 瑞慈医疗 and 嘉里建设 highlights the ongoing strength of the high-end real estate market in Shanghai, despite a broader industry downturn [2][6][8] - 瑞慈医疗's acquisition of a villa for approximately 1.99 billion yuan reflects a strategic long-term investment in a prime location, indicating confidence in future capital appreciation [3][4] - 嘉里建设's purchase of a property for 1.17 billion yuan and the subsequent strong sales performance of its 金陵华庭 project demonstrate robust demand for luxury housing in Shanghai [6][7] Company Actions - 瑞慈医疗's indirect subsidiary, 上海瑞慈瑞铂门诊部有限公司, purchased a residential unit in 云锦东方, with a total area of about 570.06 square meters at a price of 34.9 million yuan per square meter [3][4] - 嘉里建设's chairman, 郭孔华, acquired a 449 square meter unit in 金陵华庭 for 1.17 billion yuan, with expectations of generating approximately 23 million yuan in profit from the transaction [6][7] Market Trends - The luxury real estate market in Shanghai is experiencing significant growth, with high-end properties priced over 50 million yuan seeing a 27% increase in transactions year-on-year [2][8] - In the first three quarters of 2025, luxury properties accounted for nearly 80% of total transactions in 11 major cities across China, indicating a strong preference for high-value assets [8] - The recent sales performance of 金陵华庭, which sold out quickly at high prices, reflects a strong demand for luxury housing driven by affluent buyers seeking core assets [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of HKD 19.5 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 49%, driven by its diversified business model focusing on high-end residential development and quality IP leasing [1] Business Segments Property Development - The company achieved sales of HKD 16.2 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 130%, with mainland China and Hong Kong contributing 66% and 34% respectively [3] - In mainland China, the company is focusing on the Shanghai market, with the Jinling Huating project being a key driver, achieving sales of HKD 10.6 billion in the first half of 2025 [3] - In Hong Kong, sales were HKD 5.5 billion in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 5%, primarily relying on the luxury project Tiwai [3] IP and Hotel Operations - The company's IP value reached HKD 86.3 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with mainland China and Hong Kong accounting for 67% and 33% respectively [2] - Total IP and hotel area is 21.33 million square feet, with a projected increase of 36% by 2031, and a 7-year CAGR growth rate of 7% [2] - Rental income from IP decreased by 5.5% to HKD 2.502 billion, while hotel rental income fell by 3.3% to HKD 1.03 billion, attributed to a low market sentiment [2] Financial Performance and Dividends - The company maintains a robust financial position with total borrowings of HKD 59.6 billion, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, and a net debt ratio of 38.4% [4] - The company has consistently paid a dividend of HKD 1.35 since 2017, resulting in a high dividend yield of 6.9% [4] - Projected net profit for 2025-2027 is HKD 1.75 billion, HKD 1.62 billion, and HKD 4.03 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 116%, -7%, and 149% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan sets a target price of HKD 26.4 for Kerry Properties (00683), initiating coverage with a "Buy" rating, highlighting the synergy between high-end residential development and quality IP leasing [1] Group 1: Business Overview - Kerry Properties is expected to achieve a revenue of HKD 19.5 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 49%, with property development, IP rental, and hotel operations contributing 66%, 25%, and 9% respectively [2] - The company focuses on high-end residential properties and IP in key cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Hong Kong, with land reserves totaling 49.71 million square feet as of the end of H1 2025 [2] Group 2: IP and Hotel Operations - The total value of the company's IP as of H1 2025 is HKD 86.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with mainland China and Hong Kong accounting for 67% and 33% respectively [2] - The company plans to increase its IP and hotel area by 36% to 28.93 million square feet by 2031, with a projected 7-year CAGR of 7% from 2024 to 2031 [2] Group 3: Real Estate Development - In H1 2025, the company achieved sales of HKD 16.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 130%, with mainland China and Hong Kong contributing 66% and 34% respectively [3] - The Shanghai Jinling Huating project is a key driver for mainland sales, with significant sales figures and a strong market response [3] Group 4: Financials and Dividends - As of H1 2025, the company's total borrowing stood at HKD 59.6 billion, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, with a net debt ratio of 38.4% [4] - The company has maintained a stable dividend payout since 2017, with a dividend per share (DPS) of HKD 1.35 and a high dividend yield of 6.9% [4]