白银行业深度Ⅰ：全球白银供给将进入刚性低速增长新阶段

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry, specifically silver [3] Core Viewpoints - Global silver supply is expected to enter a phase of rigid low-speed growth, driven by both mining and recycling dynamics [12][13] - The silver market is characterized by high concentration in reserves, with the top five countries holding 71% of global silver reserves [6][22] - The production costs of silver have reached a ten-year high due to declining ore grades and rising global inflation [8][30] Summary by Sections 1. Silver as a Valuable Industrial Metal - Silver has a long history as a currency and a store of value, with unique physical and chemical properties that make it widely applicable in various industries [5][21] - The chemical symbol for silver is Ag, derived from the Latin word Argentum, meaning "bright" [5][18] 2. Silver Mining Supply Characteristics - Global silver reserves totaled 610,000 tons in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 11% [6][22] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of silver mining supply from 2019 to 2023 was -0.2%, indicating a rigid supply structure [7][27] - The cash cost of silver production increased by 61% year-on-year to $8.38 per ounce in 2023, while total sustaining costs rose by 25% to $17.18 per ounce [8][30] 3. Recycling and Industrial Recovery of Silver - Global silver recycling output grew at a CAGR of 4.8% from 2019 to 2023, reaching 5,556 tons [9][35] - Industrial silver recovery accounted for 56% of total recycling output in 2023, with a stable growth rate driven by the recovery of silver from ethylene oxide catalysts [12][42] - China has emerged as a key driver of global silver recycling growth, with its output increasing from 738 tons in 2019 to 1,221 tons in 2023 [36][37] 4. Overall Silver Supply Growth Forecast - The overall silver supply is projected to grow at a CAGR of 1.2% from 2024 to 2027, with total supply expected to increase from 31,915 tons to 33,039 tons [13][14] - The rigid characteristics of mining supply are expected to persist, limiting the growth potential of total silver supply [13][27] 5. Related Companies - Key companies in the silver industry include Xinyi Silver, Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold International, and Shengda Resources [14][26]