Group 1: Real Estate Industry Insights - The report indicates that despite facing short-term high inventory, long-term urbanization slowdown, and declining birth rates, the real estate market still has potential for rebound after adjustments, with significant regional and city-level differentiation [2][9]. - Since 2021, the national commodity housing volume and price have significantly declined, suggesting that the short-term market adjustment may be nearing its end, while core cities and quality products still present opportunities [2][9]. - The report highlights that during the current adjustment, real estate companies are accelerating their clearing processes, and those with lighter historical burdens and expansion capabilities may welcome a new round of development opportunities [2][9]. Group 2: Northeast Real Estate Experience - The Northeast real estate market experienced a boom from 1998 to 2012, with compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for sales area and sales revenue reaching 20.3% and 29.5%, respectively [6][7]. - The report notes that during the adjustment period from 2013 to 2015, the Northeast saw sales area and revenue decline by up to 50.9% and 44.1%, respectively, due to economic slowdown and high inventory [6][7]. - The rebound in the Northeast post-2016 was driven by national market recovery and policy support, with sales revenue rebounding to 80% of previous highs [6][7]. Group 3: National Real Estate Outlook - The report predicts that the national real estate market may see a rebound in sales and new construction, with potential sales area and revenue reaching 101% and 150% of 2024's actual values, respectively [8][9]. - It emphasizes that core urban areas with optimized inventory and quality housing will likely stabilize first, while most third and fourth-tier cities may not see significant rebounds [8][9]. - The report suggests that improving supply-demand dynamics is crucial for market stabilization, requiring further reductions in actual mortgage rates to enhance purchasing willingness [8][9]. Group 4: Macro Economic Insights - The report discusses that the 10-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.2% and 1.5% due to strong expectations for monetary easing [3][10]. - It anticipates that A-share earnings growth may stabilize in the fourth quarter of 2025, with the market bottom potentially appearing before the earnings bottom [12]. - The report highlights that the international oil price is expected to stabilize between $65 and $70 per barrel, reflecting a shift to a supply surplus scenario [13].
平安证券：晨会纪要-20250220
Ping An Securities·2025-02-20 02:21