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钢铁行业周报:供需双增,需求逐步恢复
Xiangcai Securities·2025-02-20 02:23

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][9] Core Views - The steel sector has shown a slight increase of 0.72% in the past week, with the valuation rising. The PE ratio stands at 15.4 times, at the 58.6th percentile over the past decade, while the PB ratio is at 0.95 times, at the 25.3rd percentile, indicating a week-on-week increase in valuation [5][6] - Supply and demand are both increasing, with demand gradually recovering. As of February 14, the apparent consumption of five major steel products reached 6.63 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 15.2%. The production of major steel products has also seen a slight increase [6][9] - Steel mill profitability has declined, with the profitability rate for 247 sample steel companies at 50.66%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.85 percentage points. The prices of major steel products have shown a downward trend [8][9] Summary by Sections Market Review - The steel sector's performance has been slightly below the benchmark index (CSI 300) by 0.47 percentage points, with absolute returns of 4% over the past month [4][5] Supply Data - As of February 14, the total production of five major steel products was 8.15 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.9%. The iron water production was 2.2793 million tons, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.25% [6][7] Demand Data - The apparent consumption of five major steel products increased significantly, with construction materials consumption rising by 22.0% and plate consumption by 13.9% week-on-week [6][9] Inventory Data - The total inventory of five major steel products reached 18.225 million tons as of February 14, with a week-on-week increase of 151.38 thousand tons, reflecting a 9.1% rise [7][9] Profitability and Price Data - The price indices for major steel products have decreased, with rebar at 3444 CNY/ton, a week-on-week decline of 1.01%. The overall profitability rate for steel mills has also decreased [8][9] Investment Recommendations - In the short term, demand is expected to gradually release as downstream construction units resume operations. Long-term investment value is seen in leading companies with scale advantages and those focusing on high-end and green transformation [9][59]